THE PLANETARY SOCIETY AUSTRALIAN VOLUNTEERS  - SPACEGUARD PAGE

17 May 05: Email virus alert - someone has a virus that is spewing out emails with a false sender address.  My address (mpaineATtpgi.com.au) is being used at times. These emails are NOT originating from me and there is nothing I can do about it. Please ensure your computer has an active virus checker to stop this sort of thing.

The search for Near Earth Objects (NEO) - Microplanets (comets, asteroids and meteoroids) that share our region of the solar system. Inspired by the work of Gene Shoemaker and a memorial lecture by Ken Russell from the Anglo Australian Observatory.  The term Spaceguard was coined by Arthur C Clarke in his 1973 science fiction novel Rendezvous with Rama. The introduction has an uncanny September 11 coincidence.  (Extract)

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Alerts (see also News)

• On 19 October 2014: Comet C/2013 A1 - discovered by Rob McNaught in January 2013 - will pass very close to Mars. As of 1 Mar 13 the most likely distance is 37,000km from the centre of Mars. The margin of error means that an impact is a very slight possibilty (Update 16 Apr 13: now 110,000km, with the risk of impact dropping to 1 in 120,000) . The diameter of the comet is in the range 8 to 50km. A comet this size travelling at 56km/s would cause an "extinction level event" if it struck the Earth. This is another wake-up call for a global effort to detect hazardous comets and asteroids. Wikipedia + Ian Musgrave + MPC. Rob's  remarkable discovery occurred at the same time that his professional funding ceased. A few weeks later his home was destroyed in the Siding Spring bushfires. There is now no professional (paid) astronomer looking for NEOs in southern skies. It seems to me that funding Rob's great work is the best insurance for the survival of mankind.
• 6 Nov 13 ABC Science: Catch Comet ISON: sky guide (for Australia)
  
• 11 Sep 13 Jay Tate from the UK Spaceguard Centre has received a well-deserved award from Europlanet (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 29 Aug 13: Rocks from Space now available for iPad as an iBook.
  
• 14 Aug 13 RiAus Adelaide: Dr Phil Plait presents – Death From The Skies!
  
• 30 Jun 13 ARKYD: A Space Telescope for Everyone - raising cash for a community NEO search (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 9 Jun 13 JPL: Small Asteroid Between Earth and Moon Tonight - 10m diameter, 100,000km away
  
• 11 May 2013: Astronomer and author Duncan Steel now has a website.
  
• 2 May 13 Duncan Steel talking to Phillip Adams on Radio National at 10pm
  
• 5 Feb 13 Lake Tyrrell Star Party (9-11 Mar 13  Victoria): Asteroids, Meteorites and the early Earth by Dr Victor Gostin + The Tektite Enigma by Dr Olga Gostin ( (thanks Paul Curnow)
  
• 1 Feb 13 NewSci ($): Close call coming: Averting the asteroid threat  - On 15 February 2013, the errant rock will skim Earth just 25,000 kilometres above our heads...
• 18 Jan 13 SMH: Who's on night watch? Alerting the world to rogue visitors is a vital task, but one that's under threat [funding for the crucial work by Rob McNaught has dried up, again]
  
• 12 Dec 12 Space.com: Huge Asteroid to Pass Earth Tonight - The near-Earth asteroid 4179 Toutatis, which is about 5 kilometers wide, will zoom within 7 million kilometers of Earth. SLOOH live webcast starts at 7am 12th Dec Sydney time (don't expect much action).
  
• 1 Sep 12: International Conference on Volcanism, Impacts and Mass Extinctions: Causes and Effects, The Natural History Museum, London, March 27-29, 2013 (thanks Duncan Steel)
  
• 29 Aug 12 TPS: Support the research into the effectiveness of Laser Bee spacecraft to deflect near-earth objects from striking our planet.
  
• 11 Jul 12 New Scientist: Vital [southern hemisphere] eye for killer asteroids could shut imminently (Rob McNaught's Siding Spring search to shut down) + Editorial: When it comes to defence, our priorities are wrong  (see also letter from 91 scientists in 2002). Canberra Times: Funding black hole means our asteroid sentinel may abandon crucial work. Comment: The key points is that any asteroid deflection methods that are within our capability require at least a decade of effort prior to the impact. Missing a future impactor during one orbit will mean a likely wait of at least 4 years before it is spotted during the next favourable orbital alignment - those 4 years could make all the difference betqween averting a disaster and taking a devastating hit.
  
• 17 May 12 UT: 4,700 Asteroids Want to Kill You - about twice as many PHAs as previously thought are likely to reside in “lower-inclination” orbits, which are more aligned with the plane of Earth’s orbit. These asteroids would be more likely to encounter Earth and therefore be easier to reach. So the new results suggest more near-Earth objects might be available for future robotic or human missions.
  
• 30 Jan 12 UT: Asteroid [Eros] To Make Closest Approach Since 1975 - 27 million km, visible with small telescopes on 31st Jan. Sky & Telescope chart and Sydney Observatory viewing tips.
  
• 28 Jan 12 Space.com: Asteroid Threat to Earth Sparks Global 'NEOShield' Project.
• 1 Sep 11 SpaceDaily: Asteroid Impact on Earth: Experts Review Global Response and Mitigation Steps - promising...
• 19 Nov 2010 Scientific American: Brian Marsden, longtime director of the Minor Planet Center, dead at 73 - Brian was instrumental in setting up an orderly data system for keeping track of NEOs. He has made the world a safer place for everyone. MPC notice.
• 12 Oct 10 NASA: Small Asteroid to Pass Within Earth-Moon System Tuesday (10m diameter rock to "miss" us by just 45,000km - discovered 3 days ago)
• 28 Jul 10 UT: Researchers Say Asteroid Has 1 in 1,000 Chance of Hitting Earth in 2182.
• 17 Feb 10 UT: Asteroid Might be Visible to Naked Eye on Feb. 17 - 500km diameter Vesta is a Main Belt asteroid and is no threat to Earth. It will be unsually bright in mid-February.
• 30 Jan 10 TPS: From the Executive Director: Protecting our planet from dangerous NEOs - new TPS campaign. Watch for the Jan/Feb issue of The Planetary Report.
• 20 Aug 09 NAS: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (free PDF, thanks Duncan Steel)
• 1 Aug 09 The Australian: Call to reinstate asteroid search - note that mention of the current search and follow-up program by Rob McNaught and colleagues got cut out by the editor!  Copy of open letter to Prime Minister Rudd.
• 30 Jul 09 NASA: New website: Asteroid Watch.
• 28 Jul 09 TPS: Help Protect the Earth from Near-Earth Asteroids - donations sought
• 4 March 09 Arizona State University: Our Catstrophic Solar System: Impacts and the latest Revolution in Earth Science - Jay Melosh
• 2 Mar 09 ABC News:  30m asteroid to have close call with Earth [tonight] - "the asteroid was discovered by fellow ANU astronomer Rob McNaught on Friday. .. if it did hit, the rock is too small to cause significant damage." (nonsense - a 30m object has much more energy than the Hiroshima atomic bomb and would cause an airblast as big as the Tunguska event) + Examiner: Tunguska-sized asteroid to skim Earth tomorrow closer than the moon, some satellites + NASA: Orbit Diagram + UT: Asteroid 2009 DD45 Just Buzzed by Earth.
• 6 Jan 09 NASA (via Space.com): Ideas Sought to Protect Earth from Space Rocks - see also To Nuke or To Nudge.
• 7 Oct 08 Space.com: Small Asteroid to Streak into Earth's Atmosphere Tonight - this is the first case of an object detected by the (northern hemisphere) Spaceguard system that has been calculated to strike the Earth. It is only 2 metres in diameter and will explode in the upper atmosphere. Spaceweather.com update (diagram showing trajectory over Sudan).
• 26 Sep 08 Association of Space Explorers (ASE): Asteroid Threats: A Call for Global Response (PDF)
• 3 Sep 08 The Rosetta Blog - online coverage of asteorid fly-by. UT: Countdown to Asteroid Flyby.
• 26 Aug 08 TPS: Support The Planetary Society Phobos LIFE Project - urgent request for donations to send microbes on a round trip to the Martian moon to test the transpermia hypothesis.
• 26 Jun 08 Nature: Tunguska at 100 (by Duncan Steel)  + The burger bar that saved the world (interviews with key Spaceguard people) - The truly remarkable thing was that [the K/T impact was] such a small impact — that has no effect on the Earth's rotation, its axis, its magnetic field, completely negligible physically — could nevertheless wipe out most of the life on the Earth. Many of the interviewed people signed the  letter to the Australian Government in 2002. Note that computer simulations show that most potentially fatal impact events events DO NOT LEAVE IMPACT CRATERS - they result from an ocean impact (with many of the fatalities due to tsunami) or Tunguska-like fragmentation over land. The proportion of fatal events that involve a land impact gradually increases from less than 1% for events with around 100 fatalities to 16% for events with around 1 million fatalities. Airburst impacts by small NEOs (under 100m diameter) typically result in around 100,000 fatalities.  
• 12 Jun 08 Space.com: Pluto Now Called a Plutoid - see also Microplanet essay.
• 19 Mar 08 ABC: Sci-fi guru Arthur C Clarke dies - there are many references to Sir Arthur on these pages.
• 25 Feb 08 GaiaShield: Call for signatures to support the NEO Preparedness Act.
• 13 Jan 08 Space.com: Space Rock [probably] Won't Wallop Mars, Scientists Say. Odds now 1 in 10,000.
• 29 Dec 07 NASA: Astronomers have identified asteroid 2007 WD 5 in archival imagery. With these new observations, scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif have refined their trajectory estimates for the asteroid. Based on this latest analysis, the odds for the asteroid impacting Mars on Jan. 30 are now 1-in-25 -- or about 4 percent (David Morrison adds that it is "normal" for the odds to increase with this type of close approach - the main point is that extra observations have not eliminated an impact at this stage)
• 27 Dec 07 Us Govt: Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) – Status of the Survey Program and Review of NASA’s Report to Congress (thanks Rusty Schweickart - see also 13 Nov item)
• 22 Dec 07 LA times: Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit - 1 in 75 chance of an impact on 30 January 2008 (thanks David Morrison) + NewSci: Asteroid may hit Mars in January + JPL podcast: Is an Asteroid Heading Toward Mars?
• 13 Dec 07 SMH: Sydney meteor shower alert - early hours of Saturday morning
• 25 Nov 07 The Age: Howard concedes election ... [opinion]  some 11 years after he cancelled the Australian Spaceguard program. 100s of Near Earth Asteroids have passed through southern skies unnoticed in that time. Some may pose a future threat to Earth and up to 11 years will have been lost in mitigating that threat.  
• 13 Nov 07 NASA Extracts from Congressional hearing (thanks David Morrison):
• The ability to detect virtually every potentially hazardous Near-Earth object and determine its orbit with precision transforms that statistical threat into a deterministic prediction. We face many threats, and virtually all of them are either so complex or unpredictable that they are treated probabilistically even though the social and financial consequences are legion. With a comparatively small investment the NEO risk can be transformed from a probabilistic one to a deterministic one, enabling mitigation - J. Anthony Tyson
• While suitable deflection technologies exist, none of them can be effective if we are taken by surprise. It is the aggressive survey efforts and robust planetary radars that must ensure that the vast majority of potentially hazardous objects are discovered and tracked well in advance of any Earth threatening encounters. The first three steps in any asteroid mitigation process are: Find them early, find them early, and find them early! - Don Yeomans
• Unlike other natural hazards, however, NEO impacts can be predicted well ahead of time and actually prevented from occurring. If we live up to our responsibility, if we wisely use our amazing technology, and if we are mature enough, as a nation and as a community of nations, there may never again be a substantially damaging asteroid impact on the Earth. We have the ability to make ourselves safe from cosmic extinction. If we cannot manage to meet this challenge, we will, in my opinion, have failed to meet our evolutionary responsibility. - Rusty Schweickart
• 12 Nov 07 Armagh Observatory:  The Leonid Meteors 2007 - see also Leonids page.
• 12 Nov 07 NewSci: NASA blasted for ignoring smaller asteroids + NASA: Congressional Hearings on NEO Survey Programs (testimonies)
• 6 Jun 07 NASA: 2006 Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study: Final Report + Clark Chapman: Critique of "2006 Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study: Final Report"  Published 28 Dec. 2006 by NASA Hq. Program Analysis & Evaluation Office (Word doc) + Summary and Recommendations from AIAA Planetary Defense Conference (thanks David Morrison)
• 8 Mar 07 Space.com: NASA Can't Afford Hunt for Killer Asteroids
• 19 Feb 07 New Scientist: Asteroid threat demands response, experts warn.
• 5 Feb 07 Spaceweather: ASTEROID FLYBY: Mark your calendar. On March 31st, a 2-km wide asteroid named 2006 VV2 will glide past Earth. There's no danger of a collision: the space rock will be 8.8 times farther away than the Moon.The flyby is interesting because it is so bright, between 9th and 10th magnitude...
• 20 Jan 07 - Comet, crescent Moon and Venus in one shot - image by Michael Paine. Spectacular images by Rob McNaught.
• 19 Jan 07 Comet McNaught C/2006 P1 from Sydney - image by Michael Paine
• 17 Jan 07 Quasar Publishing: Astronomy 2007: The Book - has a superb article on the status of Spaceguard by Duncan Steel. Only available in the book.
• 16 Jan 07 Space.com: The Great Comet of 2007: Watch it on the Web - spotted from Sydney on the evening of 15 Jan very close to the horizon just to the left of where the Sun set.
• 11 Jan 07 Space.com: New Comet is Brightest in 30 Years  - currently visible around sunset in the Northern Hemisphere. Stand-by for a great show in coming weeks Rob McNaught's tips.
• 30 Dec 06 NASA NEO News: Arecibo Radar Threatened...+ CNN: Finances cloud future of 'Contact' telescope - "a looming cut in U.S. government financing"..."By bouncing radio waves off asteroids, it also charts their location, speed, course and some other characteristics...". See also SpaceDaily: Radar Love: Asteroid Detection And Science - "microwaves from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico reached out and touched asteroid Apophis on Jan. 27, 29, and 30, 2005. The Arecibo data significantly improved the asteroid's orbital estimate, ruling out a potential Earth collision in 2029. The 1,000-foot diameter Arecibo telescope is one of only two places in the world where radar astronomy is effectively performed. The other is at the 70-meter Goldstone antenna in California's Mojave Desert. The two instruments are complementary. The Arecibo radar is not fully steerable (while Goldstone is), but it is 30 times more sensitive. Together they make a formidable asteroid reconnaissance team...". Comment: The ill-advised budget cuts at Arecibo radio telescope are similar the Australian government's cancellation  the Australian component of Spaceguard in 1996.
• 28 Dec 06 UT: Close Call with Asteroid 2006 XG1 in 2041 - 670m diameter space rock with a 1 in 77,000 chance of hitting the Earth on 31 Oct 2041 (NASA calcs). Further observations will likely eliminate any risk of collision. BUT mankind might not have the accurate instrument to do the job - see item above about Arecibo radio telescope.
• 12 Dec 06 Space Review: Can we detect asteroid impacts with rocky extrasolar planets? by Michael Paine
• 18 Nov 06 Space.com: Viewer's Guide: The 2006 Leonid Meteor Shower  - [the peak] encounter is predicted for Nov. 19 at 4:45 GMT (see Leonids news & links)  - unfortunately it will be about 4pm on Sun 19 Nov in Sydney and the sky won't be dark for another 4 hours. But try early Sunday morning [update: no show in Sydney!]
• 19 Oct 06 Space.com: Strong Leonid Meteor Shower Expected Nov 18 (see Leonids news & links)
• 10 Oct 06 BBC: UK to join 'killer' asteroid hunt.
• 4 Sep 06 Planetary Society:  Apophis Mission Design Competition - Will Apophis (see 2 June item below) pass through the "keyhole," the small area on its 2029 path that would cause it to hit Earth on its next orbit in 2036? We have to find out, because if an impact is likely to occur, we're going to need all the time possible to plan and implement space missions to deflect it away from Earth. No government currently has plans to accurately track this potential Earth-impactor - the Planetary Scoiety needs funds to take up this challenge.
• 3 Jul 06 Space.com: Asteroid Spotting: Skywatchers to Glimpse Close Flyby. It will be early Monday afternoon (daylight!) in Australia. Spaceweather.com tips. 2004 XP14 Planning for radar observations by NASA. JPL data.
• 17 May 06 Space.com: NASA to Look into NEO Threat Response Proposals - "The U.S. Congress has declared that the general welfare and security of the United States require that the unique competence of NASA be directed to detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and characterizing near-Earth asteroids and comets in order to provide warning and mitigation of the potential hazard of such near-Earth objects to the Earth..."  (see also Rocks from Space)
• 12 May 06 Comet 73P/Schwassman-Wachmann 3 is poorly positioned for viewing from Australia this weekend. Just before dawn it is very low in the northern sky (RA 20h 31m, Dec 27.52 degrees). Northern hemisphere observers will have a much better view.
• 23 Apr 06 SpaceDaily: Cometary String Of Pearls To Swing Past Earth In May.
• 26 Jan 06 (Happy Australia Day!) TPS: [Deep Impact] Comet Crater Contest Inconclusive
• 23 Jan 06 TPS: Donations sought for 2006 Shoemaker NEO Grants. TPS members have been sent a letter of suport from Rusty Schweickart.
• 3 Nov 05 - speculation about spotting extra-solar impacts
• 5 Jul 05 TPS report on Deep Impact mission.
• 4 Jul 05 4pm Sydney time - We have impact (at right - a screen snapshot of the image that JPL people cheered)!
  
• 2 Jun 05: A Call for (Considered) Action, Russell L. Schweickart. Abstract, (Word 2000, 21K) Full paper, (.pdf, 883K) B612 Foundation. The 2029/2036 "keyhole" for 2004 MN4 is only 600 metres across - a very small "nudge" would prevent an impact in 2036 (if the NEO would otherwise pass through that keyhole)
  
• 21 Mar 05 Royal Astronomical Society of Canada Dec98: Impact cratering through geologic time (updated URL) by Gene Shoemaker (3Mb PDF) - a landmark paper. Covers the various ways of estimating impact rates, the possibility that we are in a peak of comet impacts due to the oscillation of the Sun through the galactic plane and the Australasian Tektite event as an example of the current peak.

• 5 Feb 05 S&T: ASTEROID 2004 MN4: A REALLY NEAR MISS - a 320m diameter rock will pass within 30,000km of the Earth on Friday 13 April 2029. Since the Earth travels at about 1800km/minute around the Sun a "miss" of 30,000km represents 15 minutes in the least favourable configuration (Earth moves one radius in 3.33 minutes). A 320m asteroid is not particularly "huge" but if it hit it would create a 6km wide crater and flatten buildings out to about 100km.
  On 18 December, the object was rediscovered by Gordon Garradd at Siding Spring in New South Wales., Australia. This raised an alert among astronomers who, fortunately, now know that it will miss the Earth in 2029. But it will come back to haunt us in subsequent centuries.
  Gordon was a member of Spaceguard Australia, which was disbanded in 1996 when Australian government funding was stopped. In frustration NASA has partly funded his important work.
  
• 29 Dec 04 NASA: Possibility of an Earth Impact in 2029 Ruled Out for Asteroid 2004 MN4  "once again old observations provided the data necessary to rule out an impact" (Benny Peiser)) - up until then new observations were suggesting an increased risk of an impact - stay tuned as this story unfolds! Updated Torino Scale.
  
• 24 Dec 04 UT: Asteroid 2004 MN4 Gets the Highest Score on the Torino Scale (400m in diameter, 1 in 300 chance of impact in  2029 - further observations will likely eliminate the risk). NASA news release. 2004 MN4 was discovered on 19 June 2004 by Roy Tucker, David Tholen and Fabrizio Bernardi of the NASA-funded University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey (UHAS), from Kitt Peak, Arizona, and observed over two nights. On 18 December, the object was rediscovered from Australia by Gordon Garradd of the Siding Spring Survey, another NASA-funded NEA survey.
• 25 Nov 04 Icarus (abstract): Bias-corrected population, size distribution, and impact hazard for the near-Earth objects - this study suggests that the impact rate is several times lower than earlier estimates.
  
• 9 Nov 04 Xinhuanet : CHINA JOINS SPACEGUARD EFFORTS - Largest near-earth objects telescope [in China] installed - still only a small professional search in the Southern Hemisphere.
• 4 Nov 04: PROTECTING EARTH FROM ASTEROIDS AND COMETS - (PDF) An AIAA Position Paper (2004)... world governments must take the threat of NEO impacts seriously and must support actions that lead to the development of credible defensive capabilities.
• 8-9 Nov 04: Australian Risk Engineering Conference - RISK 2004.Keynote Speaker - Duncan Steel
• 7 Oct 04 Abstracts for the proceedings of Bioastronomy 2002: Life Among the Stars now available - several papers concerning microplanets.
  
• 12 Aug 04 Comment: Despite good progress towards the US Spaceguard Goal  (90% of 1km+ Near Earth Asteroids detected by 2008) there are still plenty of gaps in our defences and no sign of serious support from governments outside the USA and Japan. With sufficient resources there is the potential, within a decade or so, to eliminate the threat of global catastrophe from short period comets (that return to our region of the solar system every few years). The threat of local catastrophe from a Tunguska-like airburst will take much longer to deal with, as will the global threat from long period comets and asteroids. Results from a simulation that derives fatality rates for each type of impactor (the overall risk has reduced since the simualtion was undertaken but the relative contribution is unchanged).
• 5 Jul 04 :"I ask you to declare your support for these dedicated watchers of the sky by making a donation to The Planetary Society's Gene Shoemaker NEO Grant Fund. Your donation could make a profound difference - for science and for the safety of humankind." Sincerely, Louis D. Friedman
  Executive Director -The Planetary Society
• Aug 03 NASA: Near Earth Object Science Definition Team Report "Study to determine the feasibility of extending the search for Near Earth Object to smaller limitg diameters". (1.2Mb PDF)
• 26 May 04 EPSL paper: The hazard of near-Earth asteroid impacts on earth by Clark Chapman (PDF)
  
• 20 Apr 04: PLANETARY DEFENCE AT LEARMONTH SOLAR OBSERVATORY - Western Australia (thanks Jay Tate and CCNet)
• 9 Apr 04 Uni Arizona: ASTRONOMERS TAKE SEARCH FOR EARTH-THREATENING SPACE ROCKS TO SOUTHERN SKIES - Rob McNaught's project comes online. (CC)
  
• 26 Feb 04 Space.com: Earth At Risk: New Calls For Planetary Defense. - Developing a viable mitigation campaign, Yeomans explained, demands three prerequisites: "You need to find them early. You need to find them early. And we need to find them early."
• 20 Feb 04 IAU: Working Group on Near-Earth Objects - Information on Near-Earth Object AL00667
    WGNEO STATEMENT ON DEALING WITH SHORT-TERM IMPACT PREDICTIONS
  Issued by the IAU Working Group on NEOs (WGNEO). Issue date: 2004 February 19
  On the night of January 13/14, 2004, the international asteroid science community faced an unprecedented situation, with an initial prediction of an impact of a small [30m - if it had been as close as first thought] asteroid on the Earth within a few days. [It missed us by millions of km]. Postscript: As an indication of the poor quality of journalism sometimes covering these events, in several US newspapers "30m" was interpreted as 30 miles - now THAT would have caused some excitement!
  
• 24 Jan 04 Spacewatch: Online Spacewatch Volunteer Discovers Close-Approaching Asteroid (CC) - Human observers are still much better than computers at finding FMOs in Spacewatch images. But the work is too time intensive for on-duty Spacewatch observers. So the astronomers have turned to 30 volunteers for help. FMO project volunteers are based in the United States, Germany, and Finland.
  They would gladly accept more. The only requirements are interest, sharp eyes, and access to a computer when astronomers are operating Spacewatch telescopes on Kitt Peak. More details on how to volunteer for the FMO Project are on the Web at FMO Project.
• 17 May 05: PDF of talk given at Australian Centre for Astrobiology in 2003: Asteroids - now for the good news in conjunction with a talk by Mark Sonter on asteroid mining.
• 23 Jul 02 Bioastronomy 2002 paper by Paine and Peiser: The Frequency and Consequences of Cosmic Impacts Since the Demise of the Dinosaurs (280K PDF). A shortened, refereed version is now published in the Proceedings of Bioastronomy 2002: Life Among the Stars. See also CLIMATE, COMETS AND HUMAN HISTORY by Dr Vic Gostin

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"No one wants to look back and regret actions not taken" - Dr David Suzuki, The Nature of Things.

'Many might say "But we know of no one that has ever died from an asteroid impact." That's true [in recent times], but then who has ever died from a thermonuclear explosion? Surely no one would claim that they are not dangerous?' - Arthur C Clarke, Foreword to Rogue Asteroids and Doomesday Comets by Duncan Steel.


"No one has ever been killed by a meteorite in the presence of a meteoritist and a medical doctor!" - John Lewis

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NEO (Microplanet) News
See also Tsunami News , Leonid meteor shower and Planetary News

Recent items are near the top (posting date shown).
For more news see Spaceguard UK's News page, Spaceviews, NASA's Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard news page and NEO Office News Page (NNN), The Planetary Society NEO News, The Cosmic Mirror , Cambridge Conference Network(CC), SpaceDaily, Tumbling Stone (SGF/NEODys), SpaceWeather.com (has a list of forthcoming close approaches), Asteroid/Comet Connection, Universe Today (UT- space news from around the Internet, updated every weekday)

Send us your NEO news tips for posting here.

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• 10 Dec 13 NewSci: Crazy comet ISON returns bearing solar system secrets (it has fizzled after grazing the Sun!) + Alien-hunting equation revamped for mining asteroids.
  
• 10 Dec 13 News.com: Boy struck by meteorite in Florida (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 20 Nov 13 NewSci ($): Meteor impact trapped ancient swamp plants in glass (see Transpermia) + Jolly green comet blazes a trail towards sun.
  
• 12 Nov 13 Nature (Youtube): The [Chelyabinsk] fireball on film.
  
• 7 Nov 13 Science News: Meteor explosions like this year’s Russian fireball more common than thought - Chelyabinsk-sized rocks may come to Earth every 30 years, on average  (thanks Paul Curnow). Also at BBC plus Nature: A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors. This is still within the range of uncertainty predicted in 1999.
  
• 30 Oct 13 SpaceDaily: Another hazardous asteroid to dart close to Earth in 2065.
  
• 30 Oct 13 SciAm: United Nations to Adopt Asteroid Defense Plan + Daily Mail (sensationalised) Kamikaze spaceships versus the killer asteroids: World's space agencies unite to save planet Earth (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 28 Oct 13 NewSci: For instant climate change, just add one large comet - the suggestion is feasible but, so far, no large impact crater has been found of this age.
  
• 24 Oct 13 ABC News: Japan says space cannon to be fired at asteroid is on track after successful test.
  
• 19 Oct 13 Space.com: Large Asteroid to Buzz Earth in 2032, But Poses Little Threat, NASA Says (finding it difficult to find articles on Space.com these days with ads and pop-ups)
  
• 18 Oct 13 Astrowatch: Meteorite crater in Brazil reveals biggest extinction in Earth history (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 18 Oct 13 Science: Meteorite that fell last year contains surprising molecules (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 18 Oct 13 NASA: NASA Rover Confirms Mars Origin of Some Meteorites see also transpermia
  
• 18 Oct 13 NYT: Lifted From a Russian Lake, a Big, if Fragile, Space Rock.
  
• 17 Sep 13 LST: How a comet impact may have jump-started life on Earth -- and elsewhere.
  
• 12 Sep 13 ABC: NASA identifies potential asteroids to move to the Moon's orbit
• 11 Sep 13 Jay Tate from the UK Spaceguard Centre has received a well-deserved award from Europlanet (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 29 Aug 13: Rocks from Space now available for iPad as an iBook.
• 16 Aug 13 US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency: DARPA Space Surveillance Telescope Headed to Australia to Improve Space Situational Awareness [defacto Spaceguard for southern skies?] (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 14 Aug 13 NASA: Orbits of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 13 Aug 13 NASA: Small Bodies Assessment Group Findings and NASA HQ Responses + NASA Completes First Internal Review of Concepts for Asteroid Redirect Mission + NASA Sees Enthusiastic Response to Asteroid Call for Ideas  (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 5 Aug 13 SpaceDaily: Lazarus comets' explain Solar System mystery + Cosmic impact may have led to demise of early North American peoples + Surveys reveal ancient impact crater beneath Iowa town + Asteroid named as possible source of exploding Russian meteorite
  
• 27 Jul 13 2013: Flagstaff Planetary Defense Conference papers (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 30 Jun 13 ARKYD: A Space Telescope for Everyone - raising cash for a community NEO search (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 25 Jun 13 Space Review: Redirecting an asteroid mission.
  
• 19 Jun 13: The Chronicle: Meteor or space junk? Burning object mystery solved (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 9 Jun 13 Space.com: Did Comet Impacts Spur Life on Earth?
  
• 5 Jun 13 Discovery: Dying Space Rock: Asteroid-Comet Hybrid Discovered (thanks Paul Curnow) - all the more reason to call them microplanets!
  
• 4 Jun 13 NewSci: Fast-approaching asteroid has its own small moon - 2.5km diameter asteroid passed within 6 million km of Earth.
  
• 18 May 13 Wired: Watch the Biggest Explosion Ever Seen on the Moon.
  
• 11 May 13 The Guardian: Every meteorite since 861 AD: watch them fall - Only 3% of all recorded meteorites that have struck the earth were seen falling. Now you can watch every one of those 1,045 fall in this amazing animation(thanks Duncan Steel)
• 2 May 13 SciAm: Preventing the Next Chelyabinsk - my comment: Thank you for this article John. I take issue with the sentence "Fortunately, impacts on the scale of Chelyabinsk occur only once a century, so perhaps humankind will have figured out even better techniques by then." These impacts are randomly distributed in time so the next event is not a century away. The chance of a similar impact next month is 1 in 1,200 and in any subsequent month. The Catalina Sky Survey stopped funding Rob McNaught's Australian program last year. Then his Australian funding stopped at the start of this year so there is no longer a funded NEO search in the Southern Hemisphere (we are blind in one eye). Rob lost his home in the Siding Spring bushfires in February so it is turning into a very bad year for him. The irony is that in January he discovered the ~20km diameter comet that has a slight chance of hitting Mars in October 2014. If it hits it will be bigger than the Chixculub impact on Earth 65 million years ago (~15km comet). The alarming thing is that this potential impactor with Mars was only detected 18 months before the encounter. Note that most likely miss distance is 40,000km which Mars travels in about one hour in its orbit around the Sun.
  
• 16 Apr 13 SpaceDaily: Comet to Make Close Flyby of Red Planet in October 2014.
• 16 Apr 13 JPL: NASA-Funded Asteroid Tracking Sensor Passes Key Test.
  
• 2 Apr 13 Colorado Uni: CU study provides new evidence ancient asteroid caused global firestorm on Earth (thanks Paul Curnow) See also Did Asteroid-Induced Firestorm Destroy the Dinosaurs?
  
• 31 Mar 13 NewSci: Mighty Trojan found marching with Uranus (60km diameter microplant)
  
• 26 Mar 13 NYT: After Asteroid, Sigh of Relief in Russia (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 25 Mar 13 BBC: Dinosaur-killing space rock 'was a comet' (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 21 Mar 13 SMH: Asteroid risk real, says former astronaut (US senate hearing notice by Australian newspaper!)
  
• 28 Feb 13 News.com.au: Comet C/2013 Siding Spring might hit Mars in 2014 - very unlikely but it will get spectactularly close at 100,000km.
  
• 23 Feb 13 NewSci ($): New satellite will be first asteroid sentinel in space - next week the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) will launch the world's first dedicated asteroid-hunting satellite
  
• 22 Feb 13 Ballina Shire Advocate: Fly-in, fly-out... of space - A group of speakers and guests are this week in Sydney discussing the possibility of space mining... - see also  Off-Earth Mining Forum + Riches in the rubble of the Solar System.
• 21 Feb 13 Discovery.com: Asteroid Early Warning System to be Built (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 20 Feb 13 Space.com: Russian Meteor Fallout: Military Satellite Data Should Be Shared.
  
• 18 Feb 13 Adelaide Now: SA asteroid strike you missed - by 300m years - "The size of the shock metamorphic terrain, larger than 200km in diameter, makes it the third-largest discovered to date on Earth," Dr Glikson said. "It is also possible that the asteroid impact dates back to the late Devonian period - 360 million years ago - a time of major mass extinction." + Science Alert: Asteroid impact zone found  (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 18 Feb 13 NewSci: Russian meteor will teach us about future bigger hits.
  
• 17 Feb 13 NASA:  Asteroid 2012 DA14 and the Eta Carinae Nebula -   The telescope is located at the Siding Spring Observatory in Australia and is maintained and owned by iTelescope.net.
  
• 17 Feb 13 The Guardian: Meteorite slams into Central Russia injuring 1100 - as it happened (see also The Frequency and Consequences of Cosmic Impacts Since the Demise of the Dinosaurs and the FAQ from 1998 "Has anyone ever been killed by a meteorite?") + WP: Details on the meteor in Russia’s Ural Mountain region.
  
• 17 Feb 13 SBS: Meteor shower causes injuries, damage in Russia (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 12 Feb 13 The Guardian: The Tunguska event: a Siberian meteor mystery from 1908 (3 days before the Urals event!)+ Asteroid will come closer than satellites – but it's not the end of the world - see the comments (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 12 Feb 13 NYT: Beware of Errant Asteroids (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 8 Feb 13 Livescience: Asteroid Impact That Killed the Dinosaurs: New Evidence. See also mass extinctions.
  
• 5 Feb 13 Space.com: Search for Near-Earth Asteroids Needs a Speed Boost - At the current rate that near-Earth asteroids are being detected, it will take astronomers 15 years to identify every one of significant size...
• 5 Feb 13 Brisbane Times: Asteroid's near miss is gold for sky miners
  
• 2 Feb 13 S&T: The First-Ever Meteorite from Mercury? (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 1 Feb 13 NewSci ($): Close call coming: Averting the asteroid threat - On 15 February 2013, the errant rock will skim Earth just 25,000 kilometres above our heads...However, there is a region of sky that remains poorly watched. The sky over the south pole never rises above the horizon for telescopes in the northern hemisphere...The Siding Spring telescope near Coonabarabran is the only instrument that could spot a dangerous asteroid approaching from this most southerly patch of sky - but the Catalina project cut its funding in mid-2012. When the solitary astronomer still on duty there, Rob McNaught, visited the UK last September, the Siding Spring Survey shut down for a month, leaving a totally blind spot in our monitoring capabilities...That hole will be plugged in a few years' time by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) on Cerro Pachón mountain in Chile.
  
• 18 Jan 13 SMH: Who's on night watch? Alerting the world to rogue visitors is a vital task, but one that's under threat
  
• 18 Jan 13 SMH: Rogue asteroid [Apophis] a fifth bigger than first thought.
  
• 7 Jan 13 The Australian: Get set for asteroids, comets flyby [in 2013]
  
• 6 Jan 13 Icarus ($): Mineralogies and source regions of near-Earth asteroids + Lunar-forming impacts: High-resolution SPH and AMR-CTH simulations + Planetary perturbations for Oort Cloud comets. I. Distributions and dynamics
  
• 29 Dec 12 Space.com: Asteroid No Threat to Earth in 2040: Study [the use of the term "debunked" in the URL is misleading - the normal procerss is that further observations eliminate the chances of an Earth impact. That is why we need to find them early and the gap in the southern hemisphere is such a concern to astronomers]
  
• 22 Dec 12 Steve Ward has created a brilliant computer simulation of the Chicxulub impact and tsunami on Youtube. More simulations here.
• 17 Dec 12 SpaceDaily: China Makes First Asteroid Fly By [Toutatis]
  
• 11 Dec 12  The Astrophysical Journal ($): A Self-consistent Model of the Circumstellar Debris Created by a Giant Hypervelocity Impact in the HD 172555 System - this may be the first clear evidence of a major planetary impact outside of our solar system. These events should be relatively frequent in young planetary systems. See also Can we detect asteroid impacts with rocky extrasolar planets?
• 12 Sep 12 Spaceweather.com: EXPLOSION ON JUPITER: Apparently, something hit Jupiter during the early hours of Sept. 10th (11:35 UT), igniting a ferocious fireball in the giant planet's cloudtops... + DOUBLE ASTEROID FLYBY: A pair of big, near-Earth asteroids will fly by the Earth-Moon system on Sept. 14th (thanks Duncan Steel) + Space.com: Search Is on Jupiter Impact Scar.
  
• 5 Sep 12 National Geographic (2011): Trojan Asteroid Found Sharing Earth's Orbit—A First (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 13 Aug 12 UT: Schweickart: Private Asteroid Mission is for the Benefit of Humanity.
  
• 2 Aug 12 Australian Geographic: Meteorite craters in Australia (Map) (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 20 Jul 12 NewSci Editorial: Pluto's not a planet – it's much odder than that  - see also Microplanets
• 16 Jul 12 Proceedings of  11th Australian Space Science Conference, 2011 - 14Mb PDF - sample of titles below (thanks Duncan Steel)
• Space Reconnaissance: Scanning the Sky with an Optical Arecibo
• Are Two of the Neptune Trojans Dynamically Unstable?
• Quantifying Jupiter’s influence on the Earth’s impact flux: Implications for planetary habitability
• The Lunar Impact Record: Greatest Hits and One Hit Wonders
• Impacts on the Moon: Understanding the Record of Lunar Impact Glasses
• An Impact Crater in Palm Valley, Central Australia?
• 11 Jul 12 NYT: Are You an Optimist or a Pessimist? (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 11 Jul 12 Nature: Astronomers catch video of near-miss asteroid (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 30 Jun 12 Space.com: Asteroid Threat: Sizing Up Earth's Vulnerability to Space Rock Strikes.
  
• 30 Jun 12 NewSci: Earth's oldest impact crater found in Greenland + UT
  
• 29 Jun 12 Physics World: Privately funded spacecraft will look for dangerous asteroids (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 25 Jun 12 UT: Recent Earth-passing asteroid is much bigger than originally estimated (Note that a 1km asteroid would make a mess of our civilisation but would not be an "extinction level event")
• 25 Jun 12 BBC: Laser treatment for asteroids.
  
• 19 Jun 12 NASA: NASA Releases Workshop Data and Findings on Asteroid 2011 AG5 - 140m asteroid might hit the Earth in 2040, IF it passess through a "keyhole" in 2023 (thanks Duncan Steel)
  
• 19 Jun 12 Astrobiology web: Study Jointly Led by UCSB Researcher Finds New Evidence Supporting Theory of Extraterrestrial Impact - 12,900 years ago
  
• 17 May 12 UT: 4,700 Asteroids Want to Kill You
• 3 May 12 SpaceDaily: Mining Asteroids - A New Industry.
  
• 3 May 12 The Conversation: Asteroid mining will happen … but Australia will miss the boom by Duncan Steel. See also this 2002 letter to Australian Prime Minister John Howard
• 27 Apr 12 Space.com: Meteorites Discovered Along Huge Fireball's Path in California.
  
• 24 Apr 12 WSJ: A Quixotic Quest to Mine Asteroids - see also Riches in the rubble of the Solar System (1999!)
  
• 24 Apr 12 PSRD: Earth's Temporary Minimoons.
  
• 24 Apr 12 ABC: Asteroid impact pushes life underground (see also Asteroids - now for the good news - 2003) + Asteroid sites hint at life on Mars + Discovery: Daylight Fireball Streaks Over Nevada and California (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 14 Mar 12 EPSL ($): The onset of the lunar cataclysm as recorded in its ancient crater populations.
  
• 1 Mar 12 SpaceDaily: Asteroid 2011 AG5 - A Reality Check
  
• 27 Feb 12 Discovery:  NASA Urges Vigilance For Weird Fireballs - Slow-moving meteors during February are a well-known phenomenon but astronomers are mystified as to where they come from.(thanks Paul Curnow)
• 28 Jan 12 SlashGear: NEOShield international asteroid threat-reduction group forming now + Space.com: Asteroid Threat to Earth Sparks Global 'NEOShield' Project.
  
• 28 Jan 12 BBC: Asteroid makes near-miss fly-by + UT: Astronomers Capture Images of Asteroid 2012 BX34s Close Flyby of Earth.
  
• 11 Dec 11 Planetary Science Institute (15 May 11): Memorial for Elisabetta (Betty) Pierazzo - "Betty was an expert in the area of impact modeling throughout the solar system, as well as an expert on the astrobiological and environmental effects of impacts on Earth and Mars. Her work ranged widely, from providing detailed insights into the Chicxulub impact that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs to putting constraints on the thickness of the ice shell of Jupiter's moon Europa. She was interested in the rise of life and explored the delivery of organics to planets and Europa by comets as well as the creation of subsurface hydrothermal systems by impacts that may have been favorable sites for life on Mars." (Betty provided invaluable advice when I researched these issues over the years)
  
• 8 Dec 11 SciAm: Stop the Killer Space Rocks - The job of saving humanity from extinction currently falls to no one. NASA and other organizations should take it on
• 17 Nov 11 Nature: Dark days of the Triassic: Lost world - Did a giant impact 200 million years ago trigger a mass extinction and pave the way for the dinosaurs? + Discovery: Asteroid Fingered For Dino Era Boom - Not Just Bust  (thanks Paul Curnow) [comment: A 2 kilometre asteroid would make a mess but is hardly an "extinction level event"]
  
• 2 Nov 11 SpaceDaily: Large asteroid to pass by Earth Nov 8. [about 400m diameter and passing between the Earth and Moon]
• 21 Oct 11 ABC: Study suggests Earth survived near miss - A new study claims life on Earth was almost wiped out by a comet in 1883. (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 6 Oct 11 Space.com: To Deflect Killer Asteroids, Humanity Must Work Together.
• 6 Oct 11 New Scientist: Fewer asteroids found near Earth.
• 2 Sep 11 Space.com: At Mars Crater, NASA Rover Finds Evidence of Ancient Water Hotspot - see also Asteroids - now for the good news
• 1 Sep 11 SpaceDaily: Asteroid Impact on Earth: Experts Review Global Response and Mitigation Steps
• 18 Aug 11 Space.com: Meteorites Possible From Midwest US Fireball + Comet Elenin: Biggest Questions (and Answers) From NASA + Will We Be Able to Deflect an Earthbound Asteroid? (see also Rocks from Space) + Comet Elenin Poses No Threat to Earth, NASA Says.
• 9 Aug 11 Adelaide Now: Exploding meteor wakes Niue with a start  (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 7 Aug 11 SMH: Dawn shines a light on Vesta.
• 28 Jul 11 NASA: NASA's WISE Finds Earth's First Trojan Asteroid [300m asteroid orbits the Sun just ahead of the Earth].
• 26 May 11 Space.com: NASA to Launch Asteroid-Sampling Spacecraft in 2016 + Video:Possible Killer Asteroid Targeted for Mission.
• 25 May 11 SpaceDaily: NASA Sky Cameras Capture Man-Sized Meteor Over Georgia.
• 20 May 11 TPS: A rare direct hit from a meteorite (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 17 May 11 SciAm: Make Craters with Mini-Meteors - classroom science experiment
• 3 May 11 NASA: Spacecraft Earth to Perform Asteroid 'Flyby' This Fall - interpretation: a 400m diameter asteroid passes within 325,000km of Earth on 8th November 2011
• 25 Apr 11 SCPR: “Deep Impact,” but with an unhappy ending: Who will watch for Earth-bound asteroids in an era of budget cuts? (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 11 Apr UT: New Record: Telescope Finds 19 Near-Earth Asteroids in One Night (Pan-STARRS)
• 16 Feb 11 NewSci: Found: crater from Deep Impact's comet crash.
• 3 Feb 11 Cosmos Magazine Issue 37 ($): Lucky Strike (mass extinctions) + A Very Big Bang (impact consequences) and Ancient Scars (craters) - note that these articles suffer from terminology difficulties - meteors/asteroids/comets - that were addressed in this essay.
• 2 Feb 11 NASA: NASA's NEOWISE Completes Scan for Asteroids and Comets.
• 1 Feb 11 Discovery News: Asteroid Deflection Should Be Next 'Sputnik Moment'  (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 31 Jan 11 Irish Central: Massive fireball spotted in the skies above Ireland (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 27 Jan 11 NASA: Asteroids Ahoy! Jupiter Scar Likely from Rocky Body.
• 13 Jan 11 Australian Science ($): The Truth About Impact Craters + Cosmic Time Machine + The Sun Steals Comets from Other Stars + Ancient Asteroid Impact Revealed
• 5 Jan 11 Space.com: Comet or Asteroid? Big Space Rock Has Identity Crisis - or just call them all microplanets...
• 23 Dec 10 Space.com: Solar Sail Flotilla Could Divert Possibly Dangerous Asteroid [by shading it] (see also Rocks from Space)
• 23 Dec 10 EPSL($): Mechanisms and models of iridium anomaly shape across the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary.
• 13 Dec 10 UT: Asteroid Scheila Sprouts a Tail and Coma.
• 10 Dec 10 NewSci: Lucky [asteroid] strike gave Earth its gold - see also Riches in the rubble of the Solar System.
• 4 Dec 10 Space.com: A Week's Warning of Asteroid Strike Would Be Simple, Scientist Says.
• 17 Nov 10 Space.com: Small Asteroid to Give Earth a Close Shave (passing by as I write this!) - probably  a few metres across and passing within 40,000km
• 17 Nov 10 Space.com: U.S. and Australia Join Forces to Track Space Junk (but not NEOs?) + World Action Plan Emerging to Combat Asteroid Threat.
• 16 Nov 10 BBC: Japan probe collected particles from Itokawa asteroid - congratulations to JAXA for the first time samples from an asteroid have been returned to Earth
• 4 Nov 10 SpaceDaily: Purdue [Uni] Unveils [updated] Asteroid Impact Effects Calculator - Calculator is here. See also Environmental effects
• 25 Oct 10 The Australian: Outback asteroid strike caused huge explosion and left 80km shock zone, studies reveal.
• 20 Oct 10 Space.com: Planetary Defense Coordination Office Proposed to Fight Asteroids.
• 15 Oct 10 UT: Is the World Ready for An Asteroid Threat? Apollo’s Schweickart Pushes for Action.
• 13 Oct 10 NewSci: Ocean asteroid hits will create huge ozone holes - see also The Frequency and Consequences of Cosmic Impacts Since the Demise of the Dinosaurs (280K PDF)
• 12 Oct 10 NASA: Small Asteroid to Pass Within Earth-Moon System Tuesday (10m diameter rock to "miss" us by just 45,000km - discovered 3 days ago)
• 21 Sep 10 BBC: Massive blast 'created Mars moon' (see also the last item below)
• 21 Sep 10 EPSC 2010 conference: 
• Popigai Impact Event: Global or Regional Catastrophe?
• Passage of bolides through the atmosphere
• Projectile material in Meteor Crater
• Impactor mass estimation for three large impacts detected by the Apollo seismometers
• Compositional Interpretation of PFS/MEx and TES/MGS Thermal Infrared Spectra of Phobos
• 14 Sep 10 Space.com:14 Big Space Rocks Discovered Beyond Neptune.
• 10 Sep 10 UK Telegraph: Two large [?] asteroids narrowly miss earth, Nasa said
• 10 Sep 10 NASA: Caught in the Act: Fireballs Light up Jupiter 
• 8 Sep 10 Nature: NASA panel weighs asteroid danger.
• 8 Sep 10 NASA: Two Asteroids to Pass by Earth Wednesday.
• 8 Sep 10 BBC: Double space strike 'caused dinosaur extinction' (but one was enough!)
• 16 Aug 10 ABC Science: Scientist googles crater find (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 31 Jul 10 NewSci: Cosmic Trojans may sneak comets towards Earth.
• 30 Jul 10 Physorg.com: Untouched meteorite impact crater found via Google Earth (thanks Duncan Steel)
• 29 Jul 10 AMEC2010: Potential for microbe colonisation of Mars by rocks launched into space by the Chicxulub impact - paper by Michael Paine
• 28 Jul 10 Nature: A closer look at cosmic impacts - Moon-crater survey could improve Solar System surface-dating methods.
• 28 Jul 10 Space.com: Debate Heats Up Over Meteor's Role in Ice Age.
• 28 Jul 10 UT: Researchers Say Asteroid Has 1 in 1,000 Chance of Hitting Earth in 2182 + Space.com: Asteroid Could Threaten the Earth in 2182 + NASA risk page.
• 24 Jul 10 Space.com: Comet Smacked Neptune 200 Years Ago, Data Suggests.
• 12 Jul 10 SpaceDaily: European probe Rosetta successfully flies by asteroid.
• 1 Jul 10 Space.com: NASA Tackles Problem with [Dawn] Asteroid Probe.
• 23 Jun 10 SciAm: Space Rock Watch: Next Generation of Near-Earth Asteroid Lookout Comes Online.
• 18 Jun 10 BBC: Pann-Starrs telescope begins operations to hunt asteroids (see also Search for Large Asteroids Nears Completion, Experts Ponder Gaps in Program)
• 5 Jun 10 Space.com: Rogue Asteroid, Not Comet, Smacked Into Jupiter + UT: New Impact on Jupiter.
• 2 Jun 10 NewSci: Asteroid strike may have frozen Antarctica - A massive asteroid hit the Timor Sea around 35 million years ago - and the impact apparently contributed to the formation of the Antarctic ice sheets.
• 27 May 10 SciAm: Back off, asteroids--We've got nukes (but see Nudging not nuking)
• 22 May 10 ANU: Asteroid crater found under the Timor Sea (thanks Paul Curnow)
• 22 May 10 SciAm: 12 Events That Will Change Everything, Made Interactive (see the NEO item - but note that NEOs need to be larger than 1km to create ocean-wide tsunami)
• 13 May 10 Astrobiology Science Conference 2010:
• Crater-counting Evidence Against the Late Heavy Bombardment Hypothesis
• The Late Heavy Bombardment of the Moon — An Evolving Problem
• 11 May 10 Report: Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Final Report -
  Committee to Review Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies (tahnks David Morrison)
• 11 May 10 NewSci: Is Halley's comet an alien interloper?
• 8 May 10 Icarus: Dynamical erosion of the asteroid belt and implications for large impacts in the inner Solar System  - Our model suggests that the rate of impacts from large asteroids has declined by a factor of 3 over the last 3 Gyr, and that the present-day impact flux of  D>10km [very large] source objects on the terrestrial planets is roughly an order of magnitude less [one tenth] than estimates currently in use in crater chronologies and impact hazard risk assessments.
• 8 May 2010 ANU: Cosmic time machine.
• 30 Apr 10 Space.com: Potentially Dangerous Asteroid Spotted Passing Earth.
• 29 Apr 10 UT: Possible Destination? Researchers Find Water Ice and Organics on Asteroid (see also Riches in the Rubble)
• 16 Apr 10 UT: Huge Fireball Seen Over 7 Midwest US States.
• 4 Apr 10 Icarus: Archaean asteroid impacts, banded iron formations and MIF-S anomalies: A discussion.
• 3 Apr 10 NewSci: Did a comet swarm strike America 13,000 years ago?
• 3 Apr 10 Spaceflight Now: Hayabusa sets sights on planet Earth for June return (thanks Jon Clarke) - might have a piece of asteroid aboard. Targetted to land in central Australia in June.
• 26 Mar 10 BBC: Cuts cast doubt on asteroid plan - funding cuts to Arecibo. "... the best method for deflecting a small asteroid would be to fly a relatively heavy spacecraft into it. .."
• 24 Mar 10 SciAm: Volcanoes killed with global warming, 200 million years ago. More on extinctions.
• 18 Mar 10 SciAm: Hominins lived on Flores for nearly one million years before hobbit - "...climate change, volcanoes or other force might have killed off these animals [800,000 years ago]" - here is a candidate event.
• 18 Mar 10 EPSL: Tungsten isotopic evolution during late-stage accretion: Constraints on Earth–Moon equilibration
• 17 Mar 10 ABC: Rogue star to hit [might pass close to] the solar system - "There is a high probability our solar system will feel the effect of a close encounter from a nearby star, according to a new study...The star, known as Gliese 710, could disrupt planetary orbits and send a shower of comets and asteroids towards the inner planets when it passes in 1.5 million years time." - but wait for peer-review of this prediction. See also the notes to Estimated flux of rocks bearing viable lifeforms exchanged between Earth and Mars - "It has been estimated that every 100 million years or so another star system passes within 3000 AU of the Sun - well within the Oort Cloud (Hills 1981)."
• 17 Mar 10 SpaceDaily: Interrogating The Asteroid.
• 15 Mar 10 NewSci: Accidental origins: Where species come from - "It isn't the accumulation of events that causes a speciation, it's single, rare events falling out of the sky, so to speak. Speciation becomes an arbitrary, happy accident when one of these events happens to you."
• 14 Mar 10 Times Online: Comet's dramatic death dive into the sun
• 12 Mar 10 NewSci: 'Terminator' asteroids could re-form after nuke.
• 12 Mar 10 BBC: Congo ring may be giant 'impact crater'  [much work to be done]
• 5 Mar 10 NewSci: Dark, dangerous asteroids found lurking near Earth - early results from WISE
• 5 Mar 10 Space.com: Rock Solid Link: Asteroid Doomed the Dinosaurs - "Combining all available data from different science disciplines led us to conclude that a large asteroid impact 65 million years ago in modern day Mexico was the major cause of the mass extinctions." + Science ($): The Chicxulub Asteroid Impact and Mass Extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene Boundary + Of Two Minds About Toba's Impact [volcanic explosion].
• 4 Mar 10 BBC: Clues to Antarctica space blast.
• 3 Mar 10 NASA: Natural Impact Hazard (Asteroid Strike) Interagency Deliberate Planning Exercise After Action Report December 2008.
• 1 Mar 10 Nature: Ancient impact hammered Northern Hemisphere [Chicxulub]
• 17 Feb 10 ABC TV Hungry Beast: Asteroids!
• 16 Feb 10 BBC: Space rock contains organic molecular feast  + SciAm: Meteorite That Fell in 1969 Still Revealing Secrets of the Early Solar System (but see also Fossilized Bacteria Found in Ancient Meteorite - "Murchison meteorites are even more likely than most to have experienced contamination since they fell in a farmyard and, reputedly, at least some of the stones had to be recovered from a ditch filled with manure..."
• 11 Feb 10 Daily Mail (UK): Did an asteroid strike in [near] Australia plunge Anglo-Saxon England into a mini ice-age?
• 11 Feb 10 Superbowl ad - spoof on Spaceguard (thanks... Duncan Steel)
• 4 Feb 10 Space.com: Slam! Two Asteroids Suspected in Space Collision.
• 30 Jan 10 TPS: From the Executive Director: Protecting our planet from dangerous NEOs - new TPS campaign. Watch for the Jan/Feb issue of The Planetary Report + A New Way to Deflect a Dangerous Asteroid: Mirror Bees.
• 30 Jan 10 Space.com: Global Asteroid Warning System Needed to Protect Earth - meeting in Mexico.
• 26 Jan 10 Space Review: Death from the skies? Ho-hum
• 26 Jan 10 NASA: NASA's WISE Eye Spies Near-Earth Asteroid.
• 24 Jan 10 NewSci: Hidden asteroids are stalking the Earth + Approaching Earth makes asteroids go pale.
• 24 Jan 10 UT: Asteroid Detection, Deflection Needs More Money, Report Says.
• 13 Jan 10 UT: Asteroid or Space Junk? Object Makes Close Pass by Earth Wednesday [it is an asteroid].
• 12 Jan 10 TPS: Results from the Rosetta Encounter with Asteroid 2867 Steins.
• 3 Jan 10 EPSL: Two extraterrestrial dust horizons found in the Dome Fuji ice core, East Antarctica + Shock and post-shock temperatures in an ice–quartz mixture: implications for melting during planetary impact events.

 
NEO News archive (from Nov 1997)
Other Planetary Science News
Top of page

The alarm bells are ringing!

These are just a few examples of events that warn us that asteroids and comets are potentially hazardous to our civilisation.
• 8 Jun 03 The Times: Siberia meteorite flattens 40 sq miles - If it had hit Central London, Britain would no longer have a capital city. The force of the meteorite that hit eastern Siberia last September destroyed 40 square miles of forest...(CC)
  
• 21 Jun 02 BBC: Space rock's close approach - 100m diameter asteroid passed within 120,000 km of the Earth.
• Jan 2002 BBC: Space rock hurtles past Earth - 300m asteroid, less than 1 million km from Earth (the Earth travels about 2.5 million km around the Sun each day)
• May 2002 Science: Signs of a major impact 480,000 years ago, with tektites discovered in South America. There was certainly another one in SE Asia  800,000 years ago.
  
• 2001: Evidence that a huge impact was associated with the greatest extinction on record - 251 million years ago. As one scientist put it, we now have the "bookends" for the age of the dinosaurs - the huge impact that led to their rise 250 million years ago, and the Mexico impact 65 million years ago that led to their demise. That same impact led to the rise of mammals. How far away is our terminating bookmark, if we don't take action to find and mitigate the next big impact? August 2001: GSA Permian Extraterrestrial Impact Caused Largest Mass Extinction on Earth. Nature: Brimstone pickled Permian
• 2000: At the Annual AAAS meeting in Washington, Dr Benny Peiser describes the likelihood that Tunguska-type events (airbursts rather that cratering events) have played an important role in the development of civilisation over the past 10,000 years. Notes about the computer simulation. Why Files. SpaceDaily report. The Frequency and Consequences of Cosmic Impacts Since the Demise of the Dinosaurs (280K PDF)
• 1998: Astronomers discover the first (1997XF11) of several asteroids that are now known to be in a 'resonant orbit' with the Earth. In other words, they repeatedly buzz the Earth in their orbits around the Sun. A close encounter (passing through a 'keyhole') could result in the Earth's gravity changing the asteroid's orbit sufficiently to cause a collision during the next orbit. See the International Astronomy Union's List of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids.
• 1997: In a complete surprise to astronomers, Comet Hale-Bopp (a "dirty snowball" 40km across) enters the inner solar system for a brief visit. Not "as big as Texas" (the worst line in the movie Armageddon) but an object this size striking the Earth would cause an "extinction level event". Update Nov 1999: new estimates put the size of Hale-Bopp at 70km!

 .

•  July 1994: (see image) Several fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 caused these black "scars" in Jupiter's atmosphere. Each patch is about the size of the Earth (inset).
• 1991: Discovery of the giant Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico - confirming the impact that eliminated the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
• 1972: Rock samples collected by Apollo 17 (the last manned mission to the Moon) show that the age of the 85km diameter Tycho Crater is about 100 million years. An asteroid or comet about 4km across would be needed to make a crater this size. On average the Earth is struck by a microplanet this size every 10 million years. The impact rate on the smaller Moon is about one tenth of that on Earth so Tycho is within expectations (but see this note about impacts randomly distributed in time).
• June 1908: An asteroid or comet fragment about 60 metres across explodes over Tunguska in remote Siberia. 2,000 sq kilometres of forest are flattened. Under slightly different circumstances St Petersburg might had been obliterated. The Tunguska object had a kinetic energy of about 6x10^16 Joules or 15 Mt of TNT. This was around a 1000 times that of the Hiroshima bomb so the potential for destruction of cities is very serious. Tunguska was probably the largest geographically indiscriminate explosion of the last century (volcanic explosions such as Mt St Helens and major earthquakes are confined to geologically active and somewhat predictable areas but cosmic impacts can occur anywhere at any time). Events like Tunguska may occur with a typical frequency of about once per century. I have estimated that there is an annual probabilty of about 1 in 1000 that such an explosion will occur over a populated region of the Earth.
• 1910: L'Eternel Adam (The Eternal Adam) by Jules and Michel Verne. "In the distant future, Zartog Sofr-Ai-Sr discovers the journals of a man who with friends, associates and family was present at the end of the previous civilization. The journal reveals that the survivor of that civilization most certainly had an influence on the start of the one in Zartog currently lives. The civilization whose demise [by an impact] is documented is that of our present one."
• 1490 AD: 10,000 people killed in the Chinese city of Chi'ing-yang (Qingyang, Shaanxi Province) when "stones fell like rain". An exploding asteroid is a likely cause ("Rain of Iron and Ice" by John Lewis)
• 1178 AD: Monks witness the bright plume from a giant impact which might have formed the 22km diameter crater Giordano Bruno on the farside of the Moon (update 17 Mar 01 - this now seems unlikely)

---

Notes for Journalists

Rocks from Space: Michael Paine's series of articles for Space.com - bibliography with many links.

Here are some possible storylines to explore:
• Feb 02: In a remarkable show of global solidarity more than 90 scientists from 17 countries have signed a letter to Australian Prime Minister John Howard, calling for a major Australian contribution to Spaceguard - the international effort to detect asteroids that might collide with the Earth. The signatories to the letter come from Australia, Canary Islands, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, United Kingdom and  United States of America. They include leading asteroid researchers such as David Levy and Caroline Shoemaker - famous for discovering Comet Shoemaker Levy 9 that collided with Jupiter in 1994. The letter was organised by Jay Tate from the Spaceguard Centre in the UK and Dr Benny Peiser from Liverpool John Moores University, UK. Michael Paine from the Planetary Society Australian Volunteers assisted them. A PDF copy of the letter and press release can be viewed at http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/pr_oz_sg.pdf.
• 19 Jan 02 CCNet: THE REAL SITUATION INVOLVING 2001 YB5 - excellent report by Brian Marsden from MPC. "The real role of  the search programs is therefore in attempting to secure the safety of future generations. If it does happen that we are tremendously unlucky and experience an unanticipated   asteroidal impact, we should therefore blame past generations for not embarking on an  adequate search."
• 10 Jan 02 SMH: Looking out for the mother of all comets - It's time for Australia to get back in the hunt for the asteroid that  could wipe out life on Earth, writes Paul Davies. Also The Age: Big bang that ends it all and MONSTER FROM OUTER SPACE JUST MISSED US (the Earth, not the USA!). The Sunday Age: Planet X - plug for Spaceguard by Paul Davies.
• Sep 2000: UK NEO Task Force report - PDF available . NASA has a summary. See our Press Release on the implications for Australia. Excellent NASA article about Near Earth Asteroids.
• Feb 2000: At the Annual AAAS meeting in Washington, Dr Benny Peiser describes the likelihood that Tunguska-type events (airbursts rather that cratering events) have played an important role in the progress of civilisation over the past 10,000 years. Also MSNBC, Discovery.com,AAAS Press Release, Simulations. Notes about the computer simulation.
• Looking for more info about how to recognise a meteorite? - see Meteorites and Their Properties - Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona
• Our press release of 27 May 1999 seeking Australian funding for the proposed Australian componentof the International Spaceguard Survey. Australian Current Affairs show Lateline covered the issue on 31 August 1999. Press release on 1 Dec 1999 about international developments.
• What are the chances of Spaceguard detecting a threatening object?
• US Congress triples NASA's budget for near earth asteroid detection
• Kilometre wide asteroid to whizz past the Earth in 2027and might hit in 2044. Amateur observations in Australia helped to pin down the orbit. Old photos reduce the risk even further.
• Spaceguard supported in UK Parliament (again but delayed) and raised by the Opposition in the Australian Federal Parliament. Nov 28: UK Government establishes NEO centre.
• "Collision Course" by AAO Astronomer Ken Russell was a big hit (sorry!) at the Australian Science Festival in Canberra.
• Conference in Hawaii looks at tsunami from asteroid impacts. Coastlines at higher risk from impacts than inland locations but risk is probably less than earlier estimates. More research needed on vulnerability of Australian coastlines to tsunami (whatever the cause).
• High level science committee in Australia has "Near Earth Asteroids" on its prestigous "List of activities for 1998/99" but doesn't seem to have done anything about it (the total salaries of the eminent committee members exceeds the proposed annual Australian Spaceguard budget!)
• Learn all about Near Earth Objects (NEOs) while enjoying a good fiction novel Nemesis by Bill Napier, one of the Britain's top NEO scientists (update 2002 - a bit hard to find now).
• 11 Sep 03 ACA: Asteroids - now for the good news. Talk by Mark Sonter and Michael Paine, Macquarie Uni, Sydney, 1pm. Powerpoint presentation now online.
  
• 22 Jul 03 Space.com: Search for Large Asteroids Nears Completion, Experts Ponder Gaps in Program.
  
• 2 Apr 03 OECD: Dealing with the hazard of asteroids and comets that collide with the Earth - Report from the workshop, entitled "Near Earth Objects: Risks, Policies and Actions" held in Frascati, Italy, on January 20-22, 2003, It brought together leading NEO experts and government officials to examine the NEO issue as it relates to public safety. This is the one the Australian Science Minister has been waiting for. There is also a paper by Clark Chapman.(also a Word DOC version at Clark's website)
• 2 Dec 03 NASA: STUDY TO DETERMINE THE FEASIBILITY OF EXTENDING THE SEARCH FOR NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS TO SMALLER LIMITING DIAMETERS (1.2Mb PDF) - Report of the Near-Earth Object Science Definition Team - August 22, 2003
• 2 Nov 04 NASA: Hyperbole in Reports on NEOs and Impacts
• 11 May 05 Skeptical Enquirer: Hyperbole in Media Reports on Asteroids and Impacts by David Morrison

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How much are you willing to spend on Spaceguard? Try this quick quiz!

The odds, in any one year, of a civilisation-destroying impact by an asteroid or comet 1 kilometre or more in diameter are between 1 in 200,000 and 1 in a million. The odds of being dealt a royal flush in five card poker are in the same ballpark - about 1 in 500,000. Now imagine that each year you are to be dealt a hand of poker. If you are dealt a royal flush you will be immediately executed (the equivalent of a major asteroid impact). But you can avoid playing the 'game' by paying a fine.
How much would you be willing to pay to not play this deadly gamble each year?
$10? $1000? $1 million? You decide.
Now multiply this amount by the number of human beings who pay taxes in developed nations (the ones who can best afford it). Let's say 500 million people. You have worked out, on your terms, the amount the world should spend on averting a cosmic catastrophe. As a bonus the Spaceguard Survey would find many objects smaller than 1 km which could cause regional or local devastation.


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Status of the Australian Search

The Spaceguard Survey is an international project to search for asteroids and comets which could threaten life on Earth or seriously disrupt human activities. The Australian Federal Government stopped funding (about $100,000 per year) for the Australian component of the Spaceguard Survey in 1996 and the project ceased at the end of that year. "AANEAS: A Valedictory Report" has a description of the program's many successes up to that time. Note that the Australian program tied up relatively little telescope time - it used many photographs obtained for other purposes.

That is why this is an unofficial web-site - there is no Spaceguard Survey in Australia at the present time. The web site has been started to support the re-establishment of the Australian Spaceguard Survey and to provide links to other Spaceguard-related sites.

It is evident that the Australian Government is only interested in short term issues and is unlikely to support a project which might not benefit mankind for decades, or even centuries. One problem is that the bureaucracy does not have a "pigeon hole" for this topic - it is not pure "science" and there is no tangible enemy to make it a "defence" matter. Therefore the Australian Spaceguard Survey will probably need the support of individuals, corporations and societies.
 

We are not asking for money, but an indication of support - and to determine whether the web site is a suitable way to generate this support. See also the Guestbook.

1 April 1997 Canberra Times: "Asteroid watch might resume" - Sky watching for "killer rocks" in Australia could be resurrected after intervention by Prime Minister John Howard...Science Minister Peter McGauran said Mr Howard recently asked him, Education Minister Vanstane and Defeence Minister McLachlan to examine whether asteroid spotting should continue..."we're treating it as a case where individuals can fall between portfolios becuase they don't fit neatly in one or the other"...

Update March 1999: A glimmer of hope about Australian funding for Spaceguard: The Coordination Committee on Science and Technology (CCST) is a high level committee set up by the Government of the Commonwealth of Australia, comprising representatives of departments with an interest in or responsibility for science, technology and innovation matters. It lists "Near Earth Asteroids" under "Matters receiving attention in the current financial year"! . Copy here (for the record!)

Update 10 September 1999: After a three year break a professional search for Earth-threatening
asteroids will soon begin again in Australia. The project is a collaboration between astronomers at the University of Arizona and the     Australian National University. It involves refurbishing a telescope at Siding Spring in New South Wales and providing a verysensitive electronic detector array, computer pointing control and automatic detection software.

The project will help to fill a huge gap in our ability to detect asteroids which might collide with the Earth. Until now the only professional searches were in the Northern Hemisphere - the southern half of the sky was not covered. Early detection of a potentially threatening asteroids is essential if mankind is to have sufficient time
to mitigate the threat. Even the moderate rocket power we have available today would be sufficient to deflect an asteroid away from a collision, provided that the action can be taken over decades and the asteroid is
given a little nudge during each orbit around the Sun.

Although the ANU/UA project is a welcome development renewed government funding for an additional telescope will be required if the goals of the international Spaceguard Survey are to be achieved. That goal is to
discover, within a decade, 90% of Earth-approaching asteroids with a diameter of 1 km or more. A collision by an asteroid of this size would be a grave threat to our civilisation and the death toll would likely be
in the hundreds of millions.
NASA NEO News - copy of ANU/UA Press Release
 

Update March 2002

It is now 5 years since the Australian Science Minister said he would look at restarting Spaceguard in Australia (shut down by the Howard Government in 1996). Most Near Earth Asteroids take 5 years or less to orbit the Sun. Therefore the ones that were in southern skies in 1997-98, and might have been picked up by an Australian Spaceguard, are now returning to our region of the solar system. If any are found, by the northern hemisphere search efforts, to be on a collision course then the finger will be pointed at Australia for wasting five years in the effort to avert a catastrophe. This is one of those rare cases where politicians can be made accountable for their decisions to risk the consequences of inaction - astronomers can calculate an asteroid's orbit back in time and determine whether it should have been detected by a Spaceguard telescope.

18 Mar 02 OPINION - There was good coverage of the Spaceguard issue on Australian TV yesterday. Science Minister Peter McGauran tried to accuse NEO researchers of "fear-mongering" and being "self-indulgent" - a sure sign of an uncomfortable politician. In fact none of the 91 scientists from 17 countries who signed the letter to the Federal Government earlier this year would benefit in any way from an Australian decision to fund Spaceguard - other than the knowledge that a blind spot in the south would be eliminated.  However, the reaction to the programs was overwhelmingly supportive and I think Mr McGauran should discuss this issue with his colleagues. He suggested Spaceguard would take 5% out of the $18 million budget for astronomy in Australia - a sneaky way to try and eliminate support for Spaceguard from other astronomers. We are saying it is not strictly science research and it would be more appropriate to fund it from the huge defence budget. If you agree please tell your local member of federal parliament.

• Transcripts of Deeper Impact - Ch7 Sunday Sunrise
• Transcripts of The Threat Above  Ch9 60 Minutes [Text version on CCNet]"I'm not going to be spooked or panicked into spending scarce research dollars on a fruitless [!] attempt to predict the next asteroid. I'm just not convinced that the hype and alarm and even fear-mongering is 
  
enough to justify an instant investment." --Peter McGauran, Australian Minister for Science. He should have read the letter before mouthing off!
SHOULD SPACEGUARD FUNDING BE RESTORED IN AUSTRALIA?Yes 92% No 8%
• "Live chat" on the Internet after the 60 Minutes program, with Duncan Steel and Michael Paine.
• Press Release on the 60 Minutes transcripts.


1 Feb 02: In a remarkable show of global solidarity more than 90 scientists from 17 countries have signed a letter to Australian Prime Minister John Howard, calling for a major Australian contribution to Spaceguard - the international effort to detect asteroids that might collide with the Earth. The signatories to the letter come from Australia, Canary Islands, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, United Kingdom and  United States of America. They include leading asteroid researchers such as David Levy and Caroline Shoemaker - famous for discovering Comet Shoemaker Levy 9 that collided with Jupiter in 1994. The letter was organised by Jay Tate from the Spaceguard Centre in the UK and Dr Benny Peiser from Liverpool John Moores University, UK. Michael Paine from the Planetary Society Australian Volunteers assisted them. A PDF copy of the letter and press release can be viewed at http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/pr_oz_sg.pdf.
Updates: Space.com World's Asteroid Hunters Make Political Plea to Save Earth. Recipient list added to PDF document. 5 Feb 02 Canberra Times: Australia fails world on asteroids: scientists.

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The Risk and Consequences of Asteroid/Comet Impact

The following table is based on data from the NEO weblinks and you are encouraged to follow those links for a more complete picture. There are some inconsistancies between these links due, in part, to a lack of observational information (which would be corrected by a full Spaceguard survey). Therefore the table is very approximate but it will give some idea of the threat posed by asteroid and comet impacts.

Very approx size of object *	Equiv. Megatons of TNT ("Bravo" H bomb=15Mt)	Odds in 50 years #	Consequences @
10 metres	20 kilotons	Annual	"Fireballs" burn up in atmosphere. Local hazard from debris and shockwaves. Possible trigger for nuclear warning systems. Smaller objects in much greater numbers pose a threat to spacecraft
100m	75 megatons	Earth:1 in 20  Inhabit:1 in 160	Meteor crater, Wolfe Crater, Tunguska. Local direct destruction (eg 50km radius).  Around 1 million fatalities.
500m	10,000	Earth:1 in 800  Inhabit:1 in 3,600	Regional destruction. Short-term global climate (and economic) effects. Tsunami (tidal waves) devastate coastal areas. Around 35 million fatalities.
1km	100,000	Earth:1 in 2,000  Inhabit:1 in 6,000	Medium-term global climate effects. Around 63 million fatalities.
2 km	1 million	Earth:  1 in 20,000  Inhabit:  1 in 30,000	Global catastrophe threshold. Severe long-term climate effects. Collapse of agriculture. Around 1500 million fatalities.
10km	100million	Earth:1 in 2 million  Inhabit:same!	K-T impact. Mass extinction (eg dinosaurs)

Notes:

# 50 years chosen because (a) it represents a typical adult human lifespan in the developed world and (b) it is about two human generations (our grandchildren will reach our current age in 50 years time). There is considerable uncertainty about the number of NEOs and these estimates might vary by a factor of 10. The larger impacts may have periodic peaks making the risk at some parts of the "cycle" much greater (see Shiva Hypothesis). Also some events might be due to multiple impacts, such as the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary which corresponds to the age (142My) of at least three large craters on Earth.
* "Size" is the approximate diameter of a rock asteroid. Meteor Crater was probably caused by an iron-nickel meteorite about 50m in diameter but its destruction was equivalent to a 100m rock asteroid because it did not break up in the atmosphere. By convention, an object under 10m in diameter is called a meteoroid. Impact energy depends very much on the speed of impact which can range from 11km/s to 70km/s.
@ Estimated fatalities are based on the object striking an inhabited region of the Earth. They include indirect effects such as crop failures leading to starvation. For more details see estimates of the risk to inhabited regions of Earth. See also frequency of fatal events analysis from an impact simulation - the annual risk of a one million+ fatality event is about 1 in 5500.


These values are based on the estimated NEO population. Care should be taken when comparing the "odds in 50 years" with actual evidence of impacts with the Earth. See Poisson Distributions.

Update 25 Nov 04 Icarus (abstract): Bias-corrected population, size distribution, and impact hazard for the near-Earth objects - Globally destructive collisions (~1021 J) of asteroids 1 km or larger strike the Earth once every 0.60±0.1 Myr on average. Regionally destructive collisions with impact energy greater than 4×1018 J (~200 m diameter) strike the Earth every 56,000±6000 yr. Collisions in the range of the Tunguska event (4-8×1016 J) occur every 2000-3000 yr. This latest analysis suggests that the odds shown in the above table improve by about 5 times for 1km objects and less.


Another way of looking at the risk posed by asteroid/comet impact is to compare the chances of dying from selected causes. This table is based mostly on a paper by Clark Chapman and David Morrison and is for residents of the USA:

Cause of death	Chances
Motor vehicle accident	1 in 100
Homicide	1 in 300
Melanoma (a skin cancer*)	1 in 300
Fire	1 in 800
Firearms accident	1 in 2,500
Electrocution	1 in 5,000
Asteroid/comet impact	1 in 20,000#
Passenger aircraft crash	1 in 20,000
Flood	1 in 30,000
Tornado	1 in 60,000
Venomous bite or sting	1 in 100,000
Food poisioning by botulism	1 in 3 million

* Based on 7,700 melanoma deaths per year in the US. This medical cause of death was not covered by Chapman and Morrison. It is included here because, like NEO detection, it is an example of low-cost early detection reducing death rates. See Scientific American, Sept 2000 'Data Points'.
# Update Feb07: Despite its limitations, the Spaceguard Program has mostly eliminated a SHORT-TERM threat from a large NEO impact (the un-surveyed proportion of large NEOs has gone from 100% to about 10%). Recent estimates put the current risk at 1 in 200,000. The LONG-TERM risk (over centuries) remains at about 1 in 20,000 due to the number of large NEOs out there.


In other words, a US resident is 200 times more likely to die in car crash than from a NEO impact and 5 times more likely to die from a NEO impact than a venemous bite or sting.

Note that although an asteroid/comet impact is a very rare event, the number of people likely to be killed is greatly in excess of the other causes in the table. Compare the national US expenditure on "prevention" for all of these causes and it is evident that asteroid/comet detection is grossly under-funded.

For people living in low-lying coastal areas on the shoreline of deep oceans the risk could be several times greater due to the extra risk of tsunami.

.

Relative size of a 1 kilometre asteroid and the Sydney Harbour Bridge.

_{Note: I have cheated with this picture - it is actually asteroid Ida which is 50km across - you will have to imagine it is only 1km (in fact the small dot to the right is a 1km companion asteroid "Dactyl"). Thank you to Dr. Christian Gritzner from EUROSPACE GmbH for pointing this out!}

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A Rough Guide to Impact Frequency for Anthropologists, Palaeontologists and Geologists

If you are working in a field of science that studies past events then you need to take the possibility of cosmic impacts into consideration. Here is a quick and rough guide to the expected frequency of impact-related events:
 
• 1000s of years - airbursts similar to large nuclear explosions causing local devastation (e.g. Tunguska)
• 10s of 1000s of years - impacts of sufficient size to cause regional devastation and "years without summer" around the world. Disruption of agriculture.
• 100s of 1000s of years - ocean impacts causing devastating tsunami for low-lying coastal areas, land impacts causing global cooling for weeks. Devastation of agriculture. Regional extinctions.
• Millions of years - ocean and land impacts causing global darkness for weeks, freezing conditions for months, major disruption of food chains. Some global extinctions
• 100s of millions of years - catastrophic impacts causing mass extinctions, lava eruptions?, initiation of tectonic plate movement? Major global extinctions.
• Billions of years - sterilizing impacts that boil away the oceans. Major geological disruption. Seas of lava formed.

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FAQs

• Has anyone ever been killed by a meteorite?  See John Lewis's book "Comet and asteroid impact hazard on a populated Earth" for a discussion of this subject and a very long list of incidents. It is likely that 10,000 people were killed in the Chinese city of Chi'ing-yang  when "stones fell like rain". There are several reports of people being injured by meteorites. John Lewis sums up: "No one has ever been killed by a meteorite in the presence of a meteoritist and a medical doctor!"
• What are the environmental consequences of asteroid impacts?
• What are the risks of major impacts with the Earth and possible death tolls?
• Where are all the craters? Most fatal events do not leave a crater - they result from an ocean impact (with many of the fatalities due to tsunami) or Tunguska-like fragmentation over land. The proportion of fatal events that involve a crater on land gradually increases from less than 1% for events with around 100 fatalities to 16% for events with around 1 million fatalities (see simulation results).
• Are places like Sydney at greater risk due to the danger of tsunami generated by impacts? Yes - several times greater than inland locations.
• Can anything be done if an asteroid if found to be on a collision course with Earth? Yes- we have the technology to nudge a rogue asteroids into a harmless orbit but only if there is early warning - the purpose of  Spaceguard.
• Have international experts confirmed there is a threat from asteorids? Yes - including
• UK NEO Task Force Report
• AIAA report pointing out the need for a Spaceguard telescope in the soutern hemisphere (pdf)
• What can I do? It is important that politicians are aware of community concerns about the asteroid issue. If you agree that Australia needs a Spaceguard program please tell your local member of federal parliament. There is no official organisation within Australia that is able to get a major search program underway at this stage. For example, this web page is prepared on a voluntary part-time basis.

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NEO Web Links has moved (getting too large for this page!)

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The worldwide Spaceguard program should be able to detect several thousand "candidate" asteroids/comets over a fifteen year period for less than US$10 million per year. Compared with worldwide defence expenditure, and space exploration budgets, this is very cheap "insurance" for mankind!

Media Contacts

Since there is no Australian Spaceguard Survey at present general media inquiries in Australia should be directed to research organisations such as the Anglo-Australian Observatory (phone Sydney 02 93724800) or Mt Stromlo(Canberra 02 6249 0230) or the links at ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA. We will, however, try and answer email enquiries about matters covered on this web site.


Update May 2013: Astronomer and author Duncan Steel now has a website.


Note that webmaster Michael Paine is not the "head of Spaceguard Australia", as indicated in the November/December 1999 issue of The Planetary Report. He is New South Wales Coordinator of The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers. 

Visitor Number since the system last reset itself! (Sep 2002?)

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Prepared by Michael Paine (home page) : email.
His views - not necessarily those of people involved in the Spaceguard Survey or

The Planetary Society Australian Volunteer Co-ordinators or the Planetary Society
Started in 1997 (when web page names were limited to 8 letters). For last update see News