CARL SAGAN'S WARNING ABOUT THE REPTILE WITHIN US

The attempt by the US media to make news rather than report it is my greatest concern.

"An eye for an eye only makes the whole world blind" attributed to Mahatma Gandhi in the film Gandhi (should be compulsory viewing for all world leaders).

"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent" - Issac Asimov, Foundation + "...be vigilant against the baser forces of our human nature" - Issac Asimov, Forward the Foundation

"Keep well clear and defend yourself before stepping into the hornets nest of our militaristic society" - the message for ET thinking of visiting our planet. Paul Davies The Eerie Silence

23 Sep 01

The US media have not helped the situation with a constant demand for retaliation that is pushing the nation's leaders into making hasty decisions. There is a grave danger that an indiscriminate, aggressive response will destablize some of the many friendly Arab nations and plunge them into fundamentalist oppression.

At times like this it is not easy to question the actions of leaders. Those who do are labelled unpatriotic or traitors. But the reality is that the USA is not under any immediate threat, other than an economic slump of its own making. The US economy is highly dependent on consumer spending. The first thing that consumers did when their President said "Prepare for War" was to stop spending. The economic consequences of the terrorists attacks are becoming far more severe than they ever needed to be.

Here are some quotes from the book Cosmos:

• [Description of the human brain] Capping the brain stem is the R-Complex, the seat of aggression, ritual, territoriality and social heirarchy, which evolved hundreds of millions of years ago in our reptilian ancestors...on the outside, living in uneasy truce with the more primitive brains beneath, is the cerebal cortex...Civilisation is a product of the cerebal cortex.
• [War] When our well-being is threatened, when our illusions about ourselves are challenged, we tend - some of us at least - to fly into murderous rages. And when the same provocations are applied to nation states, they, too, sometimes fly into murderous rages, egged on often enough by those seeking personal power or profit. But as technology of murder improves and the penalties of war increase, a great many people must be made to fly into murderous rages simultaneously for a major war to be mustered. Because the organs of mass communciation are often in the hands of the state [or a privileged few] this can commonly be arranged.
• The global balance of terror is a very delicate balance. It depends on things not going wrong, on mistakes not being made, on the reptilian passions not being seriously aroused.

From the perspective of someone outside the USA, I have to say that President Bush sounds more like the coach of a high school sports team than a statesman. There is a need for Americans to call "time-out" and to scrutinise the strategy that has been cobbled together by the nation's leaders under the untenable glare of the media. Don't rush into actions that may have grave, far-reaching consequences.

The terrorists can be brought to justice by less reptilian means.We have to remember the traits that make us "civilised".

Updates - BBC: Iraq violence: Facts and figures + Ten years on

• 14 Jul 17 Japan Times: Treaty to ban nuclear weapons is adopted + NewSci: Nations of the world agree to ban nuclear weapons - now what?
  
• 19 Apr 17 The Guardian: Science strikes back: anti-Trump march set to draw thousands to Washington.
  
• 26 Feb 17 SMH: The Secret Iraq Dossier: Australia's flawed war.
  
• 26 Feb 17 ABC: US scientists prepare to fight back against Trump's 'war on science'
  
• 25 Jan 17 ScienceAlert: The internet is freaking out over this spooky prediction by Carl Sagan about the future.
• 26 Sep 16 Japan Times: At huge cost, U.S. plans to replace ICBM arsenal.
  
• 5 Aug 16 News.com.au: Trump’s ‘why not’ nuclear questions spark Twitter firestorm from former missile commander.
  
• 7 Jul 2016 SMH: Chilcot Report: The mind-boggling incompetence of Bush, Blair and Howard laid bare.
• 5 Sep 15 ABC: [Australian] Bombing raids in Syria would be illegal and disastrous, former ADF General Peter Gration warns.
  
• 6 Aug 15 Japan Times: How The Japan Times reported the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - a Vatican spokesman had referred to the bomb as “a further step in the direction of indiscriminate deployment of means of destruction.” ... It described Hiroshima as “a common ordinary urban community without any particular military defense facilities. . . . By individual cases of damage done, it was unprecedentedly cruel.”
  
• 1 Jun 15 SMH: Afghan province sliding back towards Taliban control - The Afghanistan province where Australian troops were stationed for eight years and suffered most of their casualties is in danger of sliding back into Taliban control...
  
• 30 Dec 14 Japan Times: As it exits Afghan war, U.S. plagued by doubts about results.
  
• 14 Sep 14 SMH: Fools rush in: Tony Abbott joins a war without definition.
  
• 12 Sep 14 Crikey: Abbott has made Australia less safe — so he’s right to lift the threat level.
  
• 12 Aug 14 SMH: Edward Snowden's lawyer blasts Australian law that would jail journalists reporting on spy leaks.
  
• 14 Jun 14 Economic Times: Misguided US invasion spawned crisis in Iraq: Analysts.
  
• 27 Apr 14: News.com: Two major projects to replace ageing RAAF jet planes have come under fresh assault from the Pentagon's chief weapons tester.
  
• 22 Apr 14 BBC: Study: US is an oligarchy, not a democracy -  economic elites and organised groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on US government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.
  
• 9 Apr 14 IMDB: The Fifth Estate - movie about Wikileaks
  
• 17 Jul 13 SciAm (Aug 13 pending); Five myths of terrorism.
  
• 20 Mar 13 BBC: Iraq: The spies who fooled the world - "Much of the key intelligence used by Downing Street and the White House was based on fabrication, wishful thinking and lies..."
  
• 27 Apr 12 New Scientist: Poor little rich minds: The price of wealth - Psychologists now have evidence that money breeds greed and kills empathy
  
• 1 Mar 12 Scientific American: Big Computers for Little Engineers - "The U.S. used to be a powerhouse in manufacturing. In the past quarter of a century we have relinquished this leadership position, in large part because we made a decision—consciously or unconsciously—that the service and financial sectors are sufficient to sustain our economy. But they are not. Service jobs pay little. The financial industry makes nothing of value and therefore cannot maintain, let alone raise, the nation’s standard of living..."
  
• 24 Jul 11 New Scientist ($): The War on Science.
• 18 May 11 BBC: The tangled reality of US/Pakistan relations + Bin Laden killing 'may set precedent' MPs are told
• 23 Oct 10 SMH: Harder to dodge the blame for war deaths (provocative)
• 31 Aug 10 SMH: Seven years after US-led invasion, Iraqis count cost: 100,000 lives, $700b.
• 1 Apr 10 Quote from the book The Eerie Silence by Paul Davies - the message for ET thinking of visiting our planet  is "Keep well clear and defend yourself before stepping into the hornets nest of our militarisitc society"
• 15 May 09 BBC: Secret Tiananmen memoirs revealed + UN calls for massive Pakistan aid (see also this warning about Pakistan in 2001)
• 7 Feb 09 New Scientist: What is behind criticism of Iraq deaths estimate?
• 30 Jan 09 AP: Artwork dedicated to shoe thrower.
• 30 Jan 09 Globe & Mail: Where, oh where, will they put the statue for George Bush?
• 23 Jan 09 ABC: Obama shuts down Guantanamo Bay, CIA prisons.
• 13 Oct 08 New Scientist ($): Our psychology helps politicians bend the truth.
• 3 Sep 08 New Scientist ($): How to keep your head in scary situations - Some argue that the media's focus on shocking or traumatic news stimulates the intuitive, non-thinking side of our decision-making and is at the root of many misjudgements. "We are not rational enough to be exposed to the press," ... The disproportionate reporting of dramatic events is particularly effective at distorting decision making. Related blog: Telling stories and lies with statistics.
• 19 Jun 08 Apple: Mistakes Were Made (But Not By Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts.
• 17 Jun 08 BBC:  Blogger arrests hit record high +  Bush and Brown's warning to Iran.
• 10 Jun 08 SpaceDaily: US leads soaring levels of military spending: report.
• 9 Jun 08 SMH: Rudd calls for nuclear disarmament.
• 3 Jun 08 SMH: War based on a lie, says Rudd + US rejects Rudd's Iraq criticism.
• 9 May 08 New Scientist ($): Interview: Hans Blix – the man who won't give up. "If we had told the UN Security Council there was nothing there, it would have shown the sources of intelligence were not good, and they were central to the US and UK's case for war."
• 14 Mar 08 ABC: No link between Saddam and Al Qaeda: Pentagon.
• 16 Jan 08 New Scientist: New study says Iraqi death toll significantly lower [than a previous estimate of 600,000. Latest estimate is 104,000 to 223,000]
• 28 Dec 07 BBC: Pakistani former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has been assassinated in a suicide attack. See also one of the first items on this page.
• 18 Nov 07 ABC: Coalition 'cannot win' in Iraq or Afghanistan.
• 14 Nov 07 Yahoo:  Report Puts Hidden War Costs at $1.6 Trillion
• 3 Nov 07 NewSci ($): Fooling yourself is an ancient and useful trait - we all tend to rationalise our bad decisions and try to hide our mistakes...
• 13 Oct 07 ABC: Former US commander labels Iraq 'nightmare with no end'.
• 9 Oct 07 Yahoo:  Report says war on terror is fueling al Qaeda.
• 8 Oct 07 ABC: Hicks needs special POW treatment, says father 
• 7 Sep 07 Yahoo:  Judge strikes down part of Patriot Act.
• 2 Sep 07 ABC: Rumsfeld 'intellectually bankrupt' on Iraq.
• 9 Aug 07 Scientific American: Bad Apples and Bad Barrels - intelligent and moral young men were transformed into cruel and sadistic guards or emotionally shattered prisoners.
• 8 Jun 07 New Scientist ($): 'Nuclear winter' is still a threat to be avoided.
• 2 Jun 07 ABC: Iraq war can't be won: former British army commander.
• 26 May 07 ABC: Spies 'warned White House' on Al Qaeda rise in Iraq.
• 24 May 07 SMH: [Australian] PM a short-sighted fear-monger: Amnesty
• 6 May 07 Scientific American: Bush's Mistake and Kennedy's Error - Self-deception proves itself to be more powerful than deception
• 27 Apr 07 New Scientist ($): Winning the war for Iraq's dead - Epidemiologist Gilbert Burham ignited controversy after publishing figures suggesting the number of people killed by the war in Iraq is far higher than coalition forces have acknowledged - he defends his survey.
• 25 Apr 07 ABC (Aust): US Democrat seeks Cheney's impeachment - A veteran United States politician has introduced legislation urging Vice-President Dick Cheney's impeachment for allegedly manipulating intelligence used to justify the US invasion of Iraq.
• 20 Apr 07 ABC (Aust): War is lost, Democrat Senator tells Bush.
• 7 Apr 07 (during Easter break!): No link between Saddam and Al Qaeda: Pentagon - Interrogations of Saddam Hussein and seized documents have confirmed the former Iraqi regime had no links with Al Qaeda, according to a Pentagon report, contradicting the US case for the 2003 invasion...one of the foremost advocates for invading Iraq after the 2001 attacks, had ignored the CIA's position...since the invasion, a number of intelligence officials have alleged the White House and its backers ignored their intelligence and "cherry picked" information to support their arguments for a war.
• 21 Mar 07 SMH: $3b and rising rapidly: cost of the war to Australian taxpayers.
• 19 Mar 07 SMH: Misguided US policy a gift to bin Laden.
• 17 Mar 07 SMH: Revealed! Tony Blair's secret weapon of mass deception.
• 1 Mar 07 BBC: US accused on 'missing' prisoners.
• 19 Feb 07 New Scientist ($): We are closer to Armageddon - many of us labour under the false assumption that the world's biggest superpower would never be the first to use nuclear weapons. We cannot rely on that...
• 17 Feb 07 ABC (Aust): Human rights education is a human right - by former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser - Since the terrible attacks in the United States on 9/11, 2001, governments in many places, including Australia, have played on the politics of fear and unfortunately and more tragically on the politics of division...the Government has legislated to give ASIO powers to detain a person known to be innocent, known not to be planning or executing any crime....There are many other aspects of terrorism legislation which give us great cause for concern...The Government would justify its actions on the basis that it is making us all safer. I would argue that the Government is making us less safe, by prostitution of our basic principles, of our basic rights. We used to be a compassionate society in the treatment of refugees fleeing terror. The Government has taught too many of us to be hard and uncaring. Families fleeing the Taliban were demonised as illegal, as wrong-doers, as prostitutes or drug-runners, maybe terrorists. How much Australia has changed. Pauline Hanson said: Turn the boats back in the 1990s and was heavily criticised for doing so. When the Government turned the boats back [in 2002] it won an election.
• 11 Feb 07 Yahoo: Putin says U.S. wants to dominate world 
• 1 Feb 07 ABC: Will we survive our brain? - can the old and the new brain learn to coexist before we
  destroy ourselves?
• 18 Jan 07 BBC: Climate resets 'Doomsday Clock' - Experts assessing the dangers posed to civilisation have added climate change to the prospect of nuclear annihilation as the greatest threats to humankind.
• 12 Jan 07 ABC: 50pc of managers could be psychopaths: research "Psychology Professor Adrian Furnham says manipulative characteristics are often rewarded in the business [and political?] world" + ThisIsLondon: Do you have a toxic boss? - see also Catalyst: Corporate Psychopaths.
• 29 Dec 06 SMH: Bush made big mistake over Iraq: [Gerald] Ford - Ford "very strongly" disagreed with the justification for the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
• 27 Dec 06 SMH: US deaths in Iraq pass Sept 11 toll.
• 30 Nov 06 Reuters UK: Vatican, Catholic officials say "don't hang Saddam" - "Unfortunately, Iraq is one of the few countries that have not yet made the civilised choice of abolishing the death penalty..."
• 28 Nov 06 ABC: [ex-Prime Minister Malcolm] Fraser urges Iraq policy rethink.
• 13 Nov 06 BBC: Afghan conflict deaths quadruple.
• 11 Nov 06 SMH: George's thumping was no gesture - Either unwilling or unable to learn from the errors of history, Rumsfeld doggedly repeated them...
• 9 Nov 06 UK Telegraph: Rumsfeld a casualty of his own 'war on terror'.
• 7 Nov 06 New Scientist (subs): Arson evidence - shot down in flames... most of what used to pass as evidence of arson is nothing of the sort, and that conventional wisdom is often plain wrong....Hurst's report disputed every bit of trial testimony and dismissed as invalid all the arson indicators cited by the investigators. The list included crazed glass and burn patterns on the floor. All have been found in accidental fires, and experiments have reproduced them. In short, Hurst found no evidence of anything but an accident. His appeals to the court fell on deaf ears, however, and Willingham was put to death.
• 3 Nov 06 ABC: Public policy shaped by fear, says Lawrence.
• 19 Oct 06 SMH: Iraq a 'catastrophic blunder' - Top former diplomat launches a stinging attack on the government's policy on Iraq.
• 13 Oct 06 New Scientist: Enormous death toll of Iraq invasion revealed - Around 655,000 people have died in Iraq as a result of the US-led coalition invasion, according to the largest scientific analysis yet... The study was conducted by US and Iraqi scientists to determine how many Iraqis have died since the invasion in March 2003. The Lancet (subs): Study estimates 655 000 excess Iraqi deaths since start of war (peer reviewed medical journal) NYT: UK Rejects Estimate of 655, 000 Iraqi Deaths.
• 6 Oct 06 New Scientist (subs): Mind fiction: Why your brain tells tall tales (see 27 June item below)
• 9 Sep 06 ABC (Aust): No links 'between Al Qaeda-Saddam' - Saddam Hussein had no ties with Al Qaeda or key operative Abu Musab al-Zarqawi before the Iraq war, a US Senate report has found.
• 1 Sep 06 ABC (Aust): Former weapons inspector disappointed with handling of concerns - the group was focusing on trying to justify pre-war judgements rather than establish facts... + Howard Australia's most xenophobic leader, Greens say
• 23 Jul 06 BBC: Iraq prisoner abuse 'was routine'.
• 27 Jun 06: By coincidence, I received the 24 June copy of New Scientist and July copy of Scientific American on the same day. In New Scientist Richard Koch and Chris Smith ask "why is science under attack like never before?" (subs!). They suggest that the rest of society is now much more critical of science, which has revealed a darker side such as atomic weapons and "poisoning of the planet". There is another, more likely reason for the demise of science that is revealed in the article "The Political Brain" by Michael Shermer in Scientific American. He describes MRI studies of the brain that have revealed how the brain suppresses the rational, reasoning portion of the brain in favour of emotions that reinforce confirmation bias - "whereby we seek and find confirmatory evidence in support of already existing beliefs and ignore or reinterpret disconfirmatory evidence" (as described by Carl Sagan in Cosmos). Science, of course, is built on that rational, reasoning function of the brain and is founded on skepticism. This does not bode well for politicians, religious fanatics or marketers of consumers products who utilise emotional responses to ply their trade. Is it any wonder that that science and skepticism are discriminated against when these same groups now have a huge influence on the media?
• 16 Jun 06 BBC: US death toll in Iraq hits 2,500 - Since the 9/11 attacks, the US has now spent or allocated $438bn on its "war on terror", with more than 70% spent in Iraq.
• 24 May 06 Australian: Irish to boycott Howard speech.
• 24 May 06 SBS: Amnesty report slams West - the United States, Britain and other European countries were criticised in a report by Amnesty International for violations such as advocating torture, imprisoning thousands of people without charge and eroding the rule of law in the fight against terrorism.
• 16 May 06 SMH: Stop this terrible waste, grieving mothers tell Bush 
• 13 May 06 ABC: US admits holding secret detainees: The International Committee of the Red Cross
• 11 May 06 SMH: Guantanamo 'unacceptable': UK A-G.
• 10 May 06 BBC: Iraq [Bagdad]killings top 1,000 in April.
• 10 Jan 06 ABC (Aust): Iraq war may cost US $2.6 trillion - The cost of the Iraq war could top $US2 trillion ($A2.6 trillion), far above the White House's pre-war projections, according to a new study.
• 10 Jan 06 BBC: US draws up space tourism rules - Space tourists must be screened to ensure they are not terrorists, according to proposed US regulations [symptom of paranoia?]
  
• 19 Dec 05 ABC: Powell 'disappointed' by pre-Iraq war intelligence
• 24 Oct 05 ABC (Aust): Coetzee's comments - Author JM Coetzee has compared Australia's proposed anti-terrorism laws to apartheid abuses in South Africa
• 8 Sep 05 SMH: Clearing away the fog of spin.
  
• 17 Aug 05 ABC: Fraser condemns 'tyrannical' terrorism laws - Former prime minister Malcolm Fraser has likened Australia to a tyrannical country over its adoption of amendments to the 2002 Terrorism Bill.
• 18 May 05 Yahoo: British Lawmaker Lashes Out at Senators . Read the transcript here in a few days. BBC: "Senator [Coleman], in everything I said about Iraq I turned out to be right and you turned out to be wrong and 100,000 have paid with their lives, 1,600 of them American soldiers sent to their deaths on a pack of lies." (this quote has not been reported in the USA)
  
• 31 Mar 05 ABC (Aust): CIA chief, Rumsfeld welcome report on intelligence - profound changes in US intelligence in response to gross failures in assessing Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
  
• 11 Feb 05 SMH (regn): September 11 report tells of many hijack warnings
• 26 Jan 05 ABC (Aust): Bush to seek billions more for military operations -  The Bush administration is seeking about $US80 billion ($A104 billion) in new funding for military operations this year in Iraq and Afghanistan, pushing the total for both conflicts to almost $US300 billion so far.
• 17 Dec 04 ABC (Aust): Iceland offers sanctuary for chess legend Fischer -  Supporters of former chess champion Bobby Fischer are hailing Iceland's decision to grant the American residency. He is a wanted man in the US, where he could face 10 years in jail after he violated international sanctions by playing chess in Yugoslavia in 1992.
  
• 20 Nov 04: ICRC criticises civilian deaths in Iraq - The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has strongly criticised what it calls the utter contempt for humanity shown by all sides in the fighting in Iraq.
• 5 Nov 04 ABC: Analyst raises prospect of strikes on Iran + Saddam evidence lost or tainted, says human rights group
• 5 Nov 04 MichaelMoore.com: Republicans, Out of Ideas, Ask Prosecutors to Arrest Michael Moore
• 30 Oct 04 Spiked Online: The politics of fear - President Bush isn’t the only one who plays the scare card.
  
• 29 Oct 04 ABC: Iraqi civilian deaths put at 100,000 - so-called collateral damage - "...the risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher than before the war. The rise in the death rate was mainly due to violence and much of it was caused by US air strikes on towns and cities, they said." + Nature: 100,000 civilians may have died in Iraq conflict Most of the dead were women and children killed in military activity, particularly air strikes + Lancet article (PDF)
• 28 Oct 04 Houston Chronicle: Amnesty International condemns U.S. 'war on terror'
• 22 Oct 04 USA Today: Candidates increasingly play on fears
• 15 Oct 04 New Scientist: Nuclear equipment vanishes in Iraq.
  
• 8 Oct 04 SMH: Saddam ditched WMD years before war.
  
• 8 Sep 04 Scientific American: Brain Scans Reveal That Revenge Is Sweet -  “people [and nations?] show systematic deviations from rationality." .
  
• 1 Sep 04 Scientific American: Terror Bull
  
• 9 Aug 04 SMH: [Australian] PM stung by band of top brass and diplomats - John Howard has been confronted with an extraordinary repudiation of his foreign  policy, especially the Iraq war, by 43 of Australia's former military chiefs, department heads and senior diplomats.
  
• 19 Jun 04 SMH: The big lie - ...the war had little to do with weapons of mass destruction and almost nothing to do with al-Qaeda. We were on the cusp of waging an unjustified war on the basis of a preposterous lie.
  
• 17 Jun 04 SMH: Iraq and bin Laden terror ties rejected - There were no credible links between Iraq and Osama bin Laden in theSeptember
   11 terrorist attacks, the independent commission investigating the attacks  has found.
  
• 16 Jun 04 BBC: Bush's foreign policy: Your views.
  
• 7 May 04 BBC: UK will screen blocked Moore film - Fahrenheit 911. 12 Jun 04: Video trailer available.
  
• 22 Mar 04 USA Today: Bush slammed on terror - Ex-counterterror adviser says president 'doing a terrible job.'
• 16 Mar 04 SpaceDaily: David Kay On Inspections and Absence of Prohibited Weapons.  - there were no significant chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in Iraq. He suggested that previous, underrated UN weapons inspections played a vital role in constraining Iraq's weapons programs. When asked if going to war with Iraq was wise if "it was just a WMD-based decision," Kay replied, "It was not worth it."
  
• 8 Mar 04 Harper's magazine: A Run on Terror - The rising cost of fear itself. A review of risks in society and some extraordinary reactions to some threats.
• 1 May 03 SMH: Vilified weapons inspectors may have got it right - Almost three weeks since the fall of Baghdad, with senior Iraqi scientists and officials in US custody, no chemical or biological weapons stockpiles have been found. Neither has any evidence been uncovered that Iraq had restarted a nuclear program.
  
• 26 Feb 03 ABC: US consumer confidence lowest in 10 years.
• 15 Feb 03 ABC: Muslim leader urges rethink on Iraq involvement - The leader of Indonesia's largest Islamic group says a unilateral attack on Iraq will fuel worldwide Muslim fundamentalism.
• 6 Jun 02 SMH: Worst I've seen, says UN asylum inspector - The United Nations has expressed its disgust at Australia's mandatory detention system, describing the Howard Government's policy of locking up asylum seekers for long periods as a gross abuse of human rights. + Williams's ASIO laws 'an erosion of civil liberties'.
• 19 May 02 SMH: Crisis of conscience - proposed anti-terrorism laws threatening civil liberties in Australia.
• 19 Apr 02 SMH: Beyond Good and Evil by Richard Neville.
• 5 Feb 02 SMH: US has lost track of bin Laden.
• 20 Jan 02 The Guardian: Saudis tell US forces to get out.
• 18 Jan 02 Yahoo: Pakistan's Musharraf Balances Modernization, Islam
• 19 Sep 01 BBC: On edge: Afghanistan's neighbours
• 21 Oct 01 BBC: War View: Are the air strikes wise?

Prepared by Michael Paine , Sydney Australia
Started on 23 September 2001. See updates.