FROLIO – Formalizable Relationship-Oriented Language-Insensitive Ontology

© Roger M Tagg 2009 revised 2010

Welcome to FROLIO – a new attempt to merge philosophy and the "semantic web" . This website is under continuing development.

The Future - can we really forecast it?

Introduction

The future is a fertile field, not only for realizing what we would like to do, but for bullshitters to pronounce about and try to bend us to their will.

My three favourite quotations on the topic are:

• The future's not ours to see - qué serà serà ( popular song)
• Whether there be prophecies, they shall fail (Bible - 1 Corinthians)
• Among all forms of mistake, prophecy is the most gratuitous (George Eliot, alias Mary Ann Evans).

Forecasting - and its inevitable level of error

There are three types of forecasting that I know about, represented by the 3 rightmost columns in the table below. Two types (trend forecasting and causal forecasting) are based on statistics, the other on mystical principles.

A few explanations are needed.

1. these may be seasonal (e.g. sales of ice cream, weather patterns), but also tidal, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly or even 11 year sun spot cycles
2. relies on establishing a correlation from past observations
3. e.g. biblical (from whatever religion), Nostradamus. The predictions in Whitaker's Almanack might not be sacred, but are possibly mystical!
4. popular in Greek mythology - but apparently there was a lady inside who gave the answers - maybe with a crystal ball. Anyhow, her answers were usually enigmatic
5. a good example was only a few yards from my birthplace; a Drumming Well that was reputed to beat when some significant historical event occurred.
6. can get quite sophisticated, e.g. "moving averages" and "exponential smoothing" - the latter gives more weight to recent results
7. as practised by government advisors; some factors can "lead" the result (e.g. new housing starts), while others may "lag"
8. e.g. natural disasters (volcanic eruption, earthquake, tsunami, epidemic), or major accidents (plane crash)
9. "targetry" is the tendency to overestimate in order to encourage underlings to aim higher; "budgetry" can work both ways: estimates might be lower, to avoid being blamed for falling short; or higher, to counter being "cut" in a general cost-cutting operation, or in next year's budget!
10. the general effect of lots of minor perturbations, like cold or wet weather spells, human late night activities, Monday mornings etc.

The note about Causal Forecasting means that we usually cannot justify claiming any real "cause and effect" - maybe it should really be called Correlation-based forecasting. For explanation, see the essay on Cause or Correlation.

What about Astrology? If Ronald Reagan consulted astrologers before making big decisions, shouldn't we? As you may guess, I'm sceptical, but maybe it's just fun (and general good advice for everyone regardless of star sign), rather than a serious attempt to predict the future. If I read astrology columns (which isn't very often) I read all 12 verdicts. I get a little concerned when some people take it too seriously. I would also point out that:

1. if there is any influence from the planets and stars, it's pretty minor compared with other factors
2. the timing of the positions of astronomical bodies has changed over the centuries, and new planets have been discovered (as a few wits say, "watch Uranus")
3. there isn't much statistical analysis of how right or wrong predictions have been after the event.

I certainly think it belongs in the right hand column, and the same with Feng Shui, Numerology, casting lots, augury etc

A recent TV programme did a few tests on the accuracy of "mystical" forecasters - with pretty damning results.

We can observe, however, that it is not only the mystics who make erroneous forecasts, so do the statisticians, money market analysts and weather forecasters - as many of us know from experience..

Claims for what effect things and actions will have

Not far removed from forecasting are the claims that people make (especially when selling a product or a service) that such and such a product, or such and such an action, will have on your health, your wealth or whatever. Like the mystical prophets, we have today the whole range of paramedical products, holistic treatments etc. Many are in fact effective, but for many there is no reliable evidence; and the placebo effect, and that of "faith", are usually not clearly distinguished.

The snake oil syndrome is not limited to alternative medicine. In the last few decades we have seen a raft of mad ideas in economics, many of which have been tried and found wanting. Even in my own specialty, information technology, many claims and predictions have been way off the mark - although other innovations have become bigger than we ever dreamed.

Human motivation about the future

Our instincts tell us that the future is uncertain. Each of us may have a different view of how to work with this fact. Some just roll along, taking each day as it comes. Others have ambitions and goals. Whichever group we fall into, we all know there are risks that we should try to avoid, like being run down in traffic, eaten by a crocodile, poisoned by bad food, falling foul of the law etc.

If we nurse ambitions or goals, we take on the additional risk that we will fail, or be disappointed. Failure might lead to further undesirable consequences, e.g. missing promotion, being sacked. These ambitions affect our attitude to the future and making estimates. This is related to the "targetry and budgetry" discussed above. However if we don't aim high, we may not get very far at all.

One relevant memory I have is what I call "Foster's paradox" after a coal board manager in Sunderland, England in the 1960s. When asked why estimates were always significantly higher than actual results, he said "if we put in estimates that reflected what we really thought would actually happen, we might as well give up our jobs and go home".

Choice, Predestination and Free Will

Question and Answer is a common format for dialogue between humans. A question may often relate to past events, but may be about the future, in which case it is often related to a choice that has to be made.

A simple case would be to ask what time flights to Sydney run on a Sunday, and at what price. Presumably we want to choose which flight to take. Airline timetables are usually a pretty reliable forecast of certain future events, unless disrupted by things like weather, equipment failure, strikes - risks that we can assess informally and regard as minor. However if the reason for the flight is to attend a job interview, we might take an earlier flight than one which just gets us there in time.

More risky choices would be investment of your savings in a volatile stock market, choosing a wife or husband, buying a house, choosing a university course, or taking a job. In making the choice we may wonder:

• is there one right answer?
• is there a best answer?
• is there a "good enough", acceptable or feasible answer?
• is there any answer at all?
• do we even have a choice?

Of course, when we get an answer to a question, it may be one that we don't want to hear.

In some philosophical talk there is discussion as to whether we really have any free will to choose. Two arguments might be proposed for "predestination":

1. Given that we are just a mass of tissue and neurons, we will behave as these material things determine for us

2. We are in the hands of God, and he chooses what we will do ("man proposes, God disposes")

Given that the second option doesn't tally with my idea of God (which I define as the spirit of Good), I might have to admit some validity in the first. But I suspect that in most cases it would be too difficult to forecast my action based on measurement of all my body and brain parts - even if someone could measure them. So calling the process "free will" does not sound too inappropriate to me, as I like to think that my mind has the last word!

However if I have drunk too much alcohol, there is no doubt that I would be a big risk if I drive a car, and I would be more likely to fall over.

Links

Index to more of these diatribes

FROLIO home page

Some of these links may be under construction – or re-construction.

This version updated on 6^th February 2010

If you have constructive suggestions or comments, please contact the author rogertag@tpg.com.au .