This page is mainly
concerned with
prevention of
future tsunami disasters by identifying communities that are vulnerable
to tsunami and ensuring that people know what to do in the
event of a
tsunami warning. It was started in 1999.
Australia
USGS:
Map
of very recent Earthquakes in the Australian region &
South
Pacific and
current
tsunami warnings for the Pacific Ocean - both US
sites.
Historical
Australian earthquakes.
Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre -
Australian Regional
Tsunami Warnings
- "
In the event of a tsunami warning for Australia for which
you
urgently need extra advice, please listen to your local radio and TV
announcements for emergency services messages" - best to be
better
prepared
than this. The
2007
Solomons event showed a serious lack of community
preparedness and shortcomings with relying on radio or TV!
15 July 2009 - still no effective emergency plan for the NSW coast.
Reduce your personal risk - May 2008
Be alert and
prepared - not alarmed. This is a
low-probability, high-consequence event that calls for a little
preparation in case a warning is issued.
These are similar to the things that people in tropical locations do to
prepare for cyclone warnings.
Although the likelihood of a mega-tsunami is low there are some simple
things you can do to significantly reduce the risk of fatality:
- Identify if you live, work or play in a vulnerable
location -
find out the approximate height above mean sea level. As a rough
guide coastal and estuary
land less than 10 metres above mean sea level is "at risk" and 5m or
less should be considered "vulnerable". Google Maps has a sea
level rise add-on
that can give a very rough guide (detailed
modelling is needed to assess vulnerability as there are many
factors that influence tsunami inundation). The following
links are to JPG screen
snapshots from Google Maps - red shows 5m contour and yellow shows 10m
contour: - Narrabeen,
Manly,
Sydney
, Brisbane,
Gold
Coast, Sunshine
Coast, Nowra,
Wollongong,
Gosford,
Newcastle
and Forster.

- Identify a safe location to go to in the event of
a tsunami
warning - a nearby hill or headland or at least the third
storey of a
reinforced concrete building
- Plan an evacuation route to reach that
safe location (avoid the need for driving a car because the roads will
likely gridlock)
- Subscribe to the email or RSS warning service
of the US
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
- Consider subscribing to a mobile phone alert
service like the Tsunami
Institute in Germany or Tsunami SMS
(expect about 5 warnings a month for the Pacific Ocean and maybe one
per year relevant to your location) . In Australia Early Warning Network
offers a free SMS service that relays tsunami warnings issued
by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The service also
covers other risks such as bushfires and cyclones.
- If you receive a tsunami
warning that is relevant to your location, or feel an earthquake, quickly
get your evacuation plan into action. If a mega-tsunami does
inundate the area do not return to low-lying land for at
least 2 hours as other waves are likely to
follow after the first wave and each wave can last for 20 to
30 minutes.
- Approach your local council and SES and
ask them to develop a tsunami
warning action plan and infrastructure (such as a public address
system) and to have inundation modelling carried out. See
the [NSW] State
Tsunami Plan(
pdf 2311kb) - issued in 2005. Until some standards are set, it is
suggested that FIVE BEEPS OF A CAR HORN OR SIREN be a universal tsunami
warning signal.
- Most importantly, relax and enjoy living
near the ocean, knowing that you have made basic
preparations for a worst case scenario
Update Nov09: Brochure "
Tsunami Survival Guide" based on the above tips
Draft presentation on the tsunami hazard to Sydney (March 2008)
Includes recent computer modelling of a mega-tsunami from the Tongan
Trench that has similar features to the 2004 Indian Ocean
Tsunami.
2008 additions
- Geoscience
Australia tsunami page with a brochure
link. Opinion: the tsunami hazard to the east coast appears
to be under-rated.
- Echoes
of ancient tsunamis
(2006) Along the eastern Australian coastline, where most
Australians live, the tsunami threat comes from several sources.
Although they have produced few historical tsunamis, the Solomons
trench, the New Hebrides trench off Vanuatu, the
Tonga–Kermadec
trench north of New Zealand, the Alpine fault in New Zealand and the
Puysegur trench south of New Zealand may all have the potential to
produce earthquake-generated tsunamis capable of reaching Australian
shores. More work needs to be done to characterise the
earthquake mechanisms in these regions... The
steep slopes of the continental shelf on the eastern Australian margin
may induce underwater landslides capable of producing localised
tsunamis...
- The Joint
Australian Tsunami Warning Centre - The
establishment of the fully functional Australian Tsunami Warning
System is a four-year project funded by the Federal Government that is
due to be completed in June 2009. At the completion of the project
Australia will have considerably improved earthquake and tsunami
detection equipment in Australia and around the region, enhanced
scientific modelling of tsunami, a responsive warning system, and
increased public awareness and community preparedness.
- EMA: Australian
Tsunami Alert System
- Tsunami
warning system will 'stop false alarms'
- Science of Tsunami Hazards:
TSUNAMI SCENARIO SIMULATOR: A TOOL FOR ENSURING EFFECTIVE DISASTER
MANAGEMENT AND COASTAL EVACUATION IN A MULTILANGUAGE SOCIETY
+ TSUNAMI
PUBLIC AWARENESS AND ITS ROLE IN RISK EDUCATION "The
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has demonstrated that large magnitude,
destructive tsunami occur in areas close to Australia. The commitment
by the Australian Federal Government to the development and
installation of an Australian Tsunami Warning System is a vital element
in helping to keep Australian coastal
communities and public and private infrastructure and assets safe from
tsunami. However, the physical components of the warning system are
only one element of making Australia safe. The other, perhaps
more important element, is preparedness and response. Emergency
Management Australia and the State Emergency
Services are the agencies tasked with the responsibility of evacuating
coastal communities if required. The success or otherwise of public
response to tsunami warnings will be dependent on their understanding
of tsunami hazard and risk. We provide selected results from a pilot
investigation into public awareness of tsunami risk in the Sydney
region – a fundamental necessity for developing appropriate
risk
mitigation strategies. Our questionnaire survey of members of
the
general public and coastal council professional officers indicates that
little has been learned since the December 2004 Indian
Ocean tsunami disaster.
This presentation provides a summary of what the public knows and
importantly, does not know with respect to tsunami. We make a series of
recommendations to assist responsible organisations in thinking about
risk mitigation."
- 28 Aug 08 A survivor
of the Indian Ocean Tsunami has started a Facebook page to
raise awareness of the risk: Tsunami
Aware Beach-Lovers.
- The Joint
Australian Tsunami Warning Centre
- Opinion: the "alert" side of things is progressing well. The
"response" and "preparedness" aspects are not so good!
May 08: This
report reaches a similar conclusion - Taking
a punch: Building a more resilient Australia - report "We need greater clarity
on the precise management and
coordination arrangements in the case, for example, of a devastating
tsunami impacting on southeast Australia...The Commonwealth agency seen
to be responsible for this, Emergency Management Australia (EMA), has
no mandate, legislation or Cabinet endorsement with which to take
command. The delivery of EMA functions for the most part is the result
of goodwill on behalf of other agencies. This is clearly not
a satisfactory situation."
"A $70 million early warning system is being set up to record
any
earthquakes that could trigger giant waves to strike the NSW coast but it’s
not clear how communities get informed, particularly if a
night-time incident occurred..."
- Why
weren't we warned? Fiction to raise awareness
- The
Australian Tsunami Warning System and lessons from the 2 April 2007
Solomon Islands tsunami alert in Australia - Dale
Dominey-Howes, UNSW & others "This
has taught us two important lessons. First, the physical warning system
is not enough in itself to result in a reduction of vulnerability to
tsunami. Just because we have a warning system does not mean the job is
done. Second, much work needs to be undertaken to ensure that
communities have been educated about tsunami hazard and risk and what
alert and warning messages mean, how to react, where to evacuate and
how quickly to respond. Furthermore, the
emergency services and the Emergency Management Australia must work
urgently to effect community tsunami disaster management planning,
identification of safe evacuation zones, testing and evaluation of
tsunami warning messages and trialing of these plans with the public."
+ Geological
and historical records of tsunami in Australia (abstract)
+ Tsunami
and palaeotsunami depositional signatures and their potential value in
understanding the late-Holocene tsunami record (abstract "we
are unable to replicate the previously reported findings of tsunami
deposits...") + Tsunami
risk mitigation and the issue of public awareness
- Emergency
management of tsunami in New South Wales and the response to the
Solomon Islands tsunami April 2nd 2007 - Australian Journal
of Emergency Management
Update July 2006 with
advice from EMA (see also Australian
news)
Emergency Management Australia is working on an "
Australian
Tsunami Warning System"
- good
news and hopefully we will soon see the implementation of civil warning
systems for Sydney coastlines.
Key points (thanks Mark Sullivan, Director Capability Development EMA):
- EMA is working with States and Territories and relevant
industry,
education, volunteer and community sectors to enhance community
preparedness through awareness raising, education and
training.
- Over
four years, from July 2005 to June 2009, the Bureau of Meteorology,
Geoscience Australia (GA) and Emergency Management Australia (EMA) will
implement a comprehensive end-to-end Australian Tsunami Warning System
(ATWS). The ATWS will be delivered through enhancements to the existing
Australian Tsunami Alert Service (ATAS), and will comprise upgraded
seismic and sea level monitoring networks, computer modelling of
tsunami propagation to aid impact forecasting, and national awareness
raising and capacity building initiatives. The ATWS, once
fully
operational, will deliver timely and accurate warnings to the
Australian community in such a way as to elicit an appropriate response
from those at risk.
- By 2007 estimates will have been made of the credible limit
of offshore tsunami wave height for the entire Australian coastline.
- Inundation modelling is being undertaken for some West
Australian coastal communities
- Australian Emergency Management Committee's Tsunami Working
Group
will meet in September 2006 with a view to agreeing on a
national
strategy for awareness raising and capacity building. Some
local
jurisdictions have already developed hazard specific arrangements for
tsunami, and EMA is committed to working with all jurisdictions to
enhance these already existing arrangements to effectively respond to a
rapid onset event such as tsunami, including the eduction sector.
- Communities and key stakeholders have been, and continue to
be,
engaged; and a national picture of tsunami risk is being developed. In
the very near future, the Australian community can expect to be
provided greater access to relevant
awareness material, and those with key responsibilities will further
benefit from tailored education, training and exercising. On this
basis, the Australian community will come ever closer to being a
'Tsunami Aware Community', and thus be better prepared to respond
appropriately to signs of tsunami in Australia and overseas, as well as
respond in a timely and appropriate way to ATWS warnings.
Related links
- Australian
Journal of Emergency Management:
- Observations
on Tsunami disaster in Papua New Guinea - 1998
- After
the Wave:
A wake up warning for Australian coastal locations King and Gurtner
consider Australia’s vulnerability to tsunamis and storm
surges...The increasing emphasis on disaster reduction through
mitigation
and preparedness has put greater responsibility on local government and
relevant authorities to ensure
that such lessons are understood and used to mitigate future
contingencies. The tsunami is a warning that
reinforces current mitigation efforts, and in particular, the long-term
goals of education and the planning
of coastal land use.
- Tsunami
risk mitigation and the issue of public awareness (PDF) - Is
Sydney at risk from tsunami
flooding and if so, from where? Approximately
330,000 people in New South Wales
live within 1km of the ocean or a coastal river and at an elevation of
no more than +10 metres above sea level (Molino Stewart, 2005). These
people, their homes,
businesses and all infrastructure are vulnerable to the effects of
tsunami inundation...
- Managing
tsunami risk in coastal communities: identifying predictors of
preparedness.
- Early
warning systems: reframing the discussion - The emphasis on
early warning systems has turned attention and funding to the current
capabilities and developments in science and technology, and
unfortunately, distracted us from the central issue of addressing the
real needs of the communities and people at risk.
- NSW State Emergency Services: Tsunamis
- The
SES is the designated combat agency for tsunami. Following is
information on what is a tsunami and how you can be prepared should one
occur... [NSW] State
Tsunami Plan ( pdf 2311kb) - issued in 2005
Quantify the threat to Australian coastlines
from tsunami (1999)
- Develop a project plan for tsunami research and mitigation
- Provide technical and operational advice and oversee the
implementation
of the plan
- Conduct further research into geological evidence of
tsunami
along the
Australian coastline
- Conduct further research into archaeological and historical
evidence of
tsunami affecting coastal Aboriginal populations.
- Liaise with international experts on the vulnerability of
the
Australian
coastline to tsunami
- Arrange computer simulations to determine the likely
effects
of
tsunami
on various parts of the Australian coast
- Review tsunami warning and mitigation systems in place in
Japan
and the
West Coast of North America.
- Develop a proposal to implement an appropriate tsunami
warning
and mitigation
system in Australia.
(Extract from "
Australian
Spaceguard Survey: the Australian
component of an international effort to detect Earth-threatening
asteroids
and comets" - May
1999.
Responses
from
Australian politicians.)
Australian tsunami-related news
items (latest at top)
- 9 Nov 09 Manly Daily: Tsunami report warning + download 22Mb report.
- 9 Nov 09 SMH: Manly tsunami threat: study finds 1000 reasons to care - an underwater landslide
on the continental shelf could send a tsunami to Sydney that would
swamp the low-lying suburb of Manly. Note that such a landslide would
probably be preceded by a mild earthquake - the message (still) is if you feel an earthquake in the coastal zone, run to higher ground...
- 4 Nov 09 Nature: Aftermath of a tsunami - A natural-hazards expert talks about surveying the destruction in Samoa. Could a more effective warning system have saved more lives? In
my opinion, no. The detection, monitoring and warning systems worked
well and could not have done anything different. The earthquake that
caused the tsunami occurred so close to the coast of Samoa that there
was simply not enough time... The take-home message is: if you feel an earthquake in the coastal zone, run to higher ground...
The Samoan Disaster Management Office has worked hard in recent years
to partner with communities to raise awareness of tsunamis and to
develop — and practise — evacuation procedures.
These efforts have saved many lives. Many Samoans reacted appropriately
when the earthquake occurred: they moved inland without waiting for an official warning.
- 27 Oct 09 SMH: Beachfront properties may not get cover [except tsunami!] + Courier Mail: Queensland coastline has perilous future under climate change (250,000 homes at risk from a 1m sea level rise) + Herald Sun: More than 80,000 buildings on Victoria's coast at risk from rising sea levels, extreme weather - It
is estimated 80 per cent of Australia's population lives in coastal
areas and 711,000 addresses lie within 3km of the coast and less than
6m above sea level. + House of Reps: Inquiry into climate change and environmental impacts on coastal communities.
[Comment: The 'Smartline' project is mapping Australian coastal
communities - it is not clear whether this includes analysis of the
Fritz line for tsunami vulnerability]
- 26 Oct 09 Star Bulletin (Hawaii) : Lessons learned - The tsunami in Samoa raises awareness that people should
not rely upon warnings... one of the lessons of the Samoa tsunami is
that people who live on the coast should not wait for a warning. "You
gotta know what to do. You can't always depend on the siren," said Ed
Teixeira, state vice director of civil defense... residents who live in
tsunami zones should have an evacuation plan to get to higher ground or to a higher floor in a concrete, multi-story building.
The other lesson learned is that public education and awareness about
tsunamis saved lives, the experts said. "That certainly was the big
lesson for Samoa," Fryer said. "The people knew what to do." ... some
residents knew right after the earthquake that a tsunami could be
generated. Others recognized the signs when the water receded.
- 24 Oct 09 The Epoch Times: Australia Vulnerable to Tsunami . Note the 1960 Chilean tsunami was no more than 1 metre high in Australia.
- 16 Oct 09 ABC: The Tasmanian Government is to hold tsunami community awareness forums on the [Tasmanian] east coast from next month
- 16 Oct 09 Gov Monitor: Australia highlights Tsunami Preparedness, Participates in Regional Exercises [but not NSW coast!]
- 1 Oct 09 ABC: 'No agreement' on [Australian] tsunami alert system - Emergency services experts say Australia's tsunami warning procedure is still lacking an effective alert system. + Australia 'not ready for killer wave'
- 1 Oct 09 BBC: Islanders act on tsunami alerts.
A wake-up call for Australian authorities - there is no civil preparedness
if the quake had been larger and generated a tsunami that inundated the east coast of Australia.
- 30 Sep 09 SMH: Powerful Pacific earthquake triggers tsunami.
- 30 Sep 09 TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1856Z 29 SEP 2009
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
AMERICAN SAMOA / SAMOA / NIUE / WALLIS-FUTUNA / TOKELAU /
COOK ISLANDS / TONGA / TUVALU / KIRIBATI / KERMADEC IS / FIJI /
HOWLAND-BAKER / JARVIS IS. / NEW ZEALAND / FR. POLYNESIA /
PALMYRA IS. / VANUATU / NAURU / MARSHALL IS. / SOLOMON IS.
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
JOHNSTON IS. / NEW CALEDONIA / KOSRAE / PAPUA NEW GUINEA /
HAWAII / POHNPEI / WAKE IS. / PITCAIRN / MIDWAY IS. / CHUUK /
AUSTRALIA
FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
NOTE THE MAGNITUDE UPGRADE TO 8.3
ORIGIN TIME - 1748Z 29 SEP 2009
COORDINATES - 15.3 SOUTH 171.0 WEST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 8.3
- MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION
LAT LON
TIME
AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
APIA UPOLU WS 13.8S
171.8W 1832Z 0.70M / 2.3FT 08MIN
PAGO PAGO AS
14.3S 170.7W 1812Z 1.57M / 5.1FT 04MIN
- LOCATION
FORECAST POINT
COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
- AUSTRALIA
BRISBANE
27.2S 153.3E 0036Z 30 SEP
SYDNEY
33.9S 151.4E 0038Z 30 SEP (10.30am)
- 21 Sep 09 ABC: Aussie geologist calls for volcano eruption plans.
- 13 Sep 09 Sri Lanka Sunday Observer: Tsunami warnings are only a test...be
alert to these warnings all those of you who are in any of these
districts and educate yourselves as to what you should do in the event
of a real tsunami warning. You must not panic because there is enough
time for you to get to higher land and safely before a tsunami reaches
our shores. It is good to be prepared for such a situation at all
times.
- 12 Aug 09 Globe & Mail: Australia boosts tsunami detection.
- 10 Aug 08 TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001, PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0417Z 10 AUG 2009. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0407Z 10 AUG 2009, COORDINATES - 11.7
SOUTH 166.2 EAST, DEPTH
- 33 KM LOCATION - SANTA CRUZ
ISLANDS, MAGNITUDE - 6.6. EVALUATION: NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
- 6 Aug 09 9.10am USGS: Magnitude 5.0 earthquake OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF AUSTRALIA
- Thursday, August 06, 2009 at 06:43:27 AM at
epicenter, 38.848°S, 137.238°E, Depth
20.4 km (poorly constrained). Comment: Although the earthquake was
"mild" the possibility of an undersea landslide and local tsunami should not be ignored.
- 17 Jul 09 Nature: Tsunami forecast in real time - Russian tsunami modeller seizes unexpected opportunity after New Zealand earthquake.
- 17 Jul 09 Newcastle Herald: No-show tsunami proved a good test.
Comment: The tsunami warning system might have "passed its test" but
coastal communities do not know what to do in the event of a severe
tsunami warning. See my "be prepared" list and the fiction piece that describes shortcomings + Others agree - ABC: Calls for better planning after tsunami threat + Victorian MP Craig Ingram.
I have also prepared a very rough guide to vulnerable towns in the
Newcastle area - see the map on the above page. Please use these
resources to raise awareness for your readers.
- 16 Jul 09 Sky News: Tsunami Alert Lifted After NZ Earthquake. Comment:
Most residents along the NSW coast were probably watching the State of
Origin rugby league match and the alert went unheeded. My fiction piece
Why
weren't we warned? describes the chaos that may have occured if the tsunami had been larger.
- 15 Jul 09 8.47PM Sydney time: TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 003, PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1051Z 15 JUL 2009
... TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLATION ...
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND/OR WATCH ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER IS NOW CANCELLED FOR
NEW ZEALAND
ORIGIN TIME - 0923Z 15 JUL 2009
COORDINATES - 46.0 SOUTH 166.3 EAST
DEPTH - SHALLOWER THAN 100 KM
LOCATION - OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND N.Z.
MAGNITUDE - 7.8
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION
LAT LON
TIME
AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
Jackson Bay, NZ 43.97S
168.62E 10:18Z
0.17M 10min
DART Tasman Sea, NZ -46.92S 160.56E
09:53Z
0.05M 8min
EVALUATION
SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR
THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE PACIFIC
- 29 May 09 ABC: Recommendation for national disaster plan delayed
- Significant limitations exist in national capability to deal with the
consequences of a catastrophic event arising from natural,
technological or human cause...
- 28 May 09 ABC: Disaster response review kept secret: author + interview: Disaster report under wraps since 2005
[opinion: in my view coast dwellers deserve to be told that low-lying
areas are vulnerable to tsunami - so that they will heed warnings and
have a basic knowledge of appropriate action to take]
- 27 May 09 The Australian: Natural
disaster findings kept secret over community panic fears - "... there
were "significant limitations" to Australia's ability to deal with such
disasters..."
- 17 May 09 The Age: Tsunami warning buoy vandalised.
- 14 May 09 Emergency Management Queensland: Emergency Services provides Disaster Awareness education to [Townsville] Northern Beaches schools
- a method that has proved incredibly effective in getting messages to
the community as a whole, and that is by targeting the awareness
sessions at school aged children, who then take the message home to
family, friends and relatives...(thanks Kristin Fedorow)
- 14 May 09 The Age: Disaster review kept secret
- A NATIONAL review kept secret for more than three years by successive
federal governments warned that Australia was not properly prepared for
catastrophic disasters, such as the Black Saturday bushfires, and found
an overwhelming need for a national warning system. The review, prepared in 2005, made a series of recommendations, including that governments improve their ability to disseminate warnings and advice to communities at risk.
The review, tendered at the Bushfires Royal Commission, measured
Australia's capability to respond to four scenarios - a cyclone in
Cairns, a major earthquake in Western Australia, a tsunami in NSW and an influenza pandemic.
- 12 May 09 The Australian: Tsunami 'could annihilate data cables'
- 8 May 09 BBC: Monster wave gives up its secrets - this BBC item is about "normal" ocean waves but it refers to vortex generation that is also responsible for the enormous erosional power of tsunami.
- 5 May 09 San Diego Tribune: Waves of the future - Local [US] company helps build tsunami early warning system [for Australia]
- 30 Apr 09 GoldCoast.com: Gold Coast City Council disaster plan
"in the event of a tsunami, people should head above the fifth floor of
a high rise or to higher ground including Robina, Southport, Mudgeeraba
and the Hinterland."
- 19 Apr 09 The Mercury: Tsunami hot spots
- Six at-risk communities on Tasmania's southeast and east coasts have
been targeted by the State Emergency Service and Tasmania Police for
information briefings about the tsunami threat.
- 10 Apr 09 Science ($): A Great Earthquake Rupture Across a Rapidly Evolving Three-Plate Boundary.
- 10 Apr 09 Seattle PI: Deadly Pacific quake keeps surprising scientists.
- 7 Apr 09 Fiji Daily Post: No money for disaster agency.
- 21 Mar 09 Fiji Times: Monitor records 12cm tsunami.
- 20 Mar 09 (7.48am) Sydney) SMH: Tsunami warning after quake strikes.
- 20 Mar 09 (7.30am Sydney) TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 003
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2008Z 19 MAR 2009
... TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLATION ...
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND/OR WATCH ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER IS NOW CANCELLED FOR
TONGA / NIUE / KERMADEC IS / AMERICAN SAMOA / SAMOA /
WALLIS-FUTUNA / FIJI
- 20 Mar 09 (7am Sydney) PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS

-
ISSUED AT 1932Z 19 MAR 2009
... A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONGA / NIUE / KERMADEC IS / AMERICAN SAMOA / SAMOA /
WALLIS-FUTUNA / FIJI
FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 1818Z 19 MAR 2009
COORDINATES - 23.0 SOUTH 174.8 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - TONGA ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.7
EVALUATION
SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS
TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTLINES OF THE REGION
NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL GAUGES NEAREST THE
REGION AND REPORT IF ANY ADDITIONAL TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY. THE
WARNING WILL NOT EXPAND TO OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED TO WARRANT SUCH AN EXPANSION.
FOR AFFECTED AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO
HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE
NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN
ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL
STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS.
AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE
ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST
POINT COORDINATES
ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
TONGA
NUKUALOFA 21.0S
175.2W 1845Z 19 MAR
NIUE
NIUE IS.
19.0S 170.0W 1904Z 19 MAR
KERMADEC IS RAOUL
IS. 29.2S
177.9W 1912Z 19 MAR
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO
PAGO 14.3S
170.7W 1925Z 19 MAR
SAMOA
APIA
13.8S 171.8W 1934Z 19 MAR
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS
IS. 13.2S
176.2W 1947Z 19 MAR
FIJI
SUVA
18.1S 178.4E 2003Z 19 MAR
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
- 19 Mar 09 ABC: Undersea volcano erupts off Tonga.
- 9 Mar 09 The Age: Keeping the fires burning - But
the media focus on dramatic crises fails to convey the need for ongoing
funding of less visible catastrophes or preventive measures. In the
1990s, the World Bank and US Geological Survey found that $1 spent on
preventive measures would have saved $7 in economic losses from the
world's natural disasters — to say nothing of billions of
lives...surely it's time to engage our heads and invest much more in
prevention-focused projects with at least some chance of yielding
lasting change.
- 20 Feb 09 Radio NZ: South Pacific needs own tsunami warning centre.
- 19 Feb 09 (9.40am): PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2204Z 18 FEB 2009 (8.54am 19/2 Sydney time)
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 2154Z 18 FEB 2009
COORDINATES - 27.3 SOUTH 175.7 WEST
DEPTH - 36 KM
LOCATION - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.3
EVALUATION - NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
- 16 Feb 09 The Australian: $60m
on tsunami alert as fires, floods miss out
- [opinion] the article gives the impression that the tsunami warning
system is in place. Most vulnerable communities along Australia's
coastline do not have a tsunami warning action plan or way to reliably
receive a warning. In Australia Early Warning Network
offers a free SMS service that relays tsunami warnings issued
by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The service also
covers other risks such as bushfires and cyclones.
- 11 Feb 09 The Australian: Cyclone
warnings a model for blazes after Victoria bushfires (and
tsunami)..."If there's a tsunami or a fire coming, at 2am, people don't
have their electronic media on,"
- 31 Jan 09 Bay Post: New
SES unit for Batemans Bay - Batemans Bay people worried about
what would happen if a tsunami hit their area may rest easier...
- 23 Dec 08 SMH: How
the inner-west was undone - [Sydney] councils prepare for the
worst. Ashfield Council has the reports
for downloading. Part
3 refers to some of these pages - but not the inundation
map.
- 23 Dec 08 SMH: Warning
system to be tested in Sydney CBD - "Experience
shows getting timely, accurate information to the community
is crucial during an emergency, and the speaker system
throughout the CBD is one of the ways we will communicate with the
public.
“There are 98 speakers located throughout the CBD, as well as
13
variable messaging signs which are positioned at transport hubs in the
city, all of which play a major role in the Sydney CBD Emergency
Plan.“We don’t want to alarm the public,
we want them to be confident in the fact we have plans and systems in
place for their welfare.”
- 19 Dec 08 EMA: Australian
Disasters Conference 2009: Surviving Future Risks, 10-13
February 2009, National Convention Centre, Canberra (thanks Kristin
Fedorow -
tsunami surivivor)
- 27 Nov 08 The Australian: Slip
into something a little more devastating
- large undersea landslides off Australia's east coast indicate the
area may be at risk from tsunamis some day, say scientists who returned
last week from a 15-day voyage mapping 13,000sqkm of the continental
slope between Byron Bay, NSW, and Noosa Heads, Queensland...(thanks Sue Lennox)
- 31 Oct 08 ABC: Tsunami
detection centre opens in Melbourne + Tsunami
warning centre launched - "Australia has its own capacity to
detect these tsunami events and so
the country is much better prepared in the event that we do have
another tsunami..." [opinion: this is warning, not civil
preparation]
- 28 Oct 08 The Herald: Scientists
to survey coast for tsunami research - fifteen
scientists will leave Newcastle next month aboard the CSIRO research
ship Southern Surveyor to investigate the potential for underwater landslides to trigger tsunamis
along Australia's east coast...survey the continental slope between
northern NSW and the Sunshine Coast [i.e not Sydney].
- 28 Oct 08 Pacific Magazine: Experts
Assist PNG’s Tsunami Warning and Mitigation
System.
- 20 Oct 08 AFP: Powerful
quake rattles Tonga + PTWC: Tsunami
Bulletin - "NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT
EXISTS..."
- 15 Oct 08 9News: Tsunami
warning system almost functional (but not civil response)
- 12 Oct 08 Powerboat World: Boost
for tsunami detection capability in WA.
- 30 Sep 08 (this item overwhelmed by Wall St!) PTWC: AN
EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 1519Z 29 SEP 2008,
COORDINATES -
30.1 SOUTH 176.8 WEST,
DEPTH
- 7 KM
LOCATION - KERMADEC
ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 6.9
EVALUATION - NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS
BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. Comment:
This is
the Tonga
region that is potentially a mega-tsunami source for
Australia (Google
Earth). Fortunately the magnitude of the earthquake was
insufficient to cause an ocean-wide tsunami.
- 18 Sep 08 ABC Radio: New
Pacific disaster risk management website launched - SOPAC.
- 17 Sep 08 Illawara Mercury: BBC
[tsunami] documentary based on UOW professor's claims.
- 9 Sep 08 News.com.au: Strong
quake off Vanuatu. Pacific
Tsunami Warning Center: ORIGIN TIME - 1852Z 08 SEP
2008
COORDINATES - 13.5 SOUTH 166.9 EAST,
DEPTH - 146 KM,
LOCATION
- VANUATU ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.1, EVALUATION:
A
DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI WAS NOT GENERATED BASED ON EARTHQUAKE AND
HISTORICAL TSUNAMI DATA.
- 2 Sep 08 Environmental Expert: Australia’s
ocean research ship open to Sydneysiders
- “This year the ship has ... discovered active
submarine
volcanoes in Fiji and deployed Tsunami warning buoys in the Tasman
Sea.”
- 1 Sep 08 Google Earth: The south west Pacific has been very
active in the last few days - see image
- 28 Aug 08 A survivor
of the Indian Ocean Tsunami has started a Facebook page to
raise awareness of the risk: Tsunami
Aware Beach-Lovers.
- 26 Aug 08 Canberra Times:
Mine boom our bust, staff say
- Staff at the Canberra-based national geological institution which
also monitors earthquake and tsunami risks across the Pacific region
will hold a lunch-time protest rally today...
- 25 Aug 08 State Emergency Services of NSW: SES
Wants to Hear 1960 Tsunami Recollections (PDF)
- 22 Aug 08 Early
Warning Network offers a free SMS service that relays tsunami
warnings issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
- 15 Aug 08 Breakthrough! Illawara Mercury:
Tsunami a real threat to Illawarra: professor - A tsunami
would surge through most Illawarra
beachside suburbs (link
is not the Geoscience map - it was prepared using
Google Maps) within
minutes of appearing off the coast. Residents might get just two hours'
warning if it originated near New Zealand. Water would surge forcefully
along roads and waterways, carried to low-lying areas - in some cases
more than a kilometre inland. The scenario has been used as part of
animated hi-tech modelling to predict the impact of a large-scale
disaster in Australia...Illawarra-South Coast State Emergency Service
said it would organise warnings in the region during the approach of a
tsunami and evacuate high-risk areas such as beaches and caravan parks.
Deputy region controller Dianne Gordon said a tsunami
education and evacuation plan for Illawarra would be released in
November.
- 4 Aug 08 Science Alert: When
push comes to shove - Unfortunately
for us, one such zone is a couple of thousand kilometres off the north
east coast of Australia. A large quake there could have the potential
to generate a tsunami similar to the one in the Indian Ocean on Boxing
Day 2004, though this time hitting land on Australia’s
eastern
coast. “The interpreted geometry of the subducted plate there
is
alarmingly similar to the structure of the slab below
Sumatra,”
says Dr Richards. ANU
page.
- 30 Jul 08 SMH: Australia
and Indonesia to share [tsunami] buoy
- 28 Jun 08 Tsunami Society: PRELIMINARY
ANALYSIS OF THE EARTHQUAKE (MW 8.1) AND TSUNAMI OF APRIL 1, 2007, IN
THE SOLOMON ISLANDS, SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN (4Mb PDF)
- 21 Jun 08 SMH: Crash
and burn - Australia has been lulled into a false sense of
security on disaster readiness
- 9 Jun 08 Pacific Magazine: Cook
Islands To Get Tsunami Warning Check.
“The Cook Islands participation in the first end-to-end
Pacific-wide
tsunami exercise in 2006 (“Pacific Wave”) showed
some improvements
could be made in conveying tsunami warnings nationally to local
communities and large organisations such as schools and the public
sector.”!
- 2 Jun 08 AFP: Strong
quake strikes off Australia: US agency - no tsunami warning
issued
- 29 May 08 ABC: [Aust] Tsunami
warning system will 'stop false alarms'
- 9 May 08 NZ Herald: Don't
panic but ... think-tank highlights flaws in disaster planning.
- 8 May 08 Australian Strategic Policy Institute: Taking
a punch: Building a more resilient Australia
- 8 May 08 Sun Herald Mississippi: SAIC
[US company] to Provide Additional Tsunami Buoys to Australia.
- 7 May 08 Herald Sun: Australia
unready for big disaster
- "Recent improvements to tsunami monitoring are commendable but don't
help to convey the message of a potential impact to communities in the
middle of the night,". Also in The
Age.
- 25 Apr 08 New Scientist: Megaquake
set to strike within a decade
- sometime in the next 10 years we can expect an earthquake
of a
similar magnitude to the 2004 Sumatra quake that triggered the
devastating Indian Ocean tsunami. Will it be the Tongan
Trench?
- 13 Apr 08 SMH: Tide
turns on tsunami alert - still no civil preparedness
- 9 Apr 08 AusGEO: Revealing
the continental shelf off New South Wales - Bulli slide
analysed (thanks Ted Bryant)
- 9 Apr 08 ABC: Asian
tsunami a once in a decade event: expert.
- 4 Mar 08 SMH: Researchers
cast doubt on mega-tsunami theory (but don't explain the
multiple lines of evidence)
- 1 Oct 07 ABC: Scientists
examine data from quakes off NZ
- Emergency services on both sides of the Tasman [Sea] were on alert
[to do what?], but [fortunately] neither of the quakes triggered a
tsunami of any significance.
- 30 Sep 07 (6pm) Magnitude
7.4 quake south of New Zealand - low risk of long range
tsunami.
- 28 Sep 07 (7am) Magnitude
6.3 earthquake near Vanuatu at 6am Sydney time.
- 5 Aug 07 Catalyst: Tsunami
Buoy
- Australia is not as immune from tsunamis as you might
think...Climb aboard as Australia’s first tsunami warning
alarm
is dropped into a deep ocean trench...scientists haven’t done
our
job properly in communicating and working
with the public. And at present the budget in the Australian Tsunami
Warning System doesn’t match the budget of the physical
infrastructure (i.e. civil preparedness).
- 17 Apr 07 Dr George Pararas-Carayannis: EARTHQUAKE
AND TSUNAMI OF 1 APRIL 2007 IN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS.
- 10 Apr 07 Australian: Radar
net to sound alarm on tsunamis
- A coastal ocean radar network able to estimate the size of a tsunami
heading towards Australia is being set up in Queensland. (thanks Steve
Ward) [opinion: not sure about the 1 hour warning claim - a
deep
water tsunami travels at around 500km/h, even though it will slow down
in the shallower water of the continental shelf one hour to travel
150km seems optimistic]
- 5 Apr 07 ABC: 'Rough
guide' tsunami warnings on the way
- scientists cannot be confident their predictions will be very
accurate, because they have not finished modelling how the sea behaves.
(but see Steve Ward's real-time modelling below)

- 5 Apr 07 Steve Ward (tsunami modeller): Real Time Tsunami
Forecast 4/1/2007 SOLOMON IS. Quake (several MOV files)
- 4 Apr
07 Email to local paper:
Monday's tsunami alert exposed numerous flaws in
the
preparedness for a major tsunami along the east coast of Australia.
Since 1999 I have pointed out the lack of tsunami preparedness in
Australia.
The report today in the Manly Daily is focussed on the dissemination of
warning information but that is relatively straight forward. I
subscribe to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's email alert service
and received the first warning at 7.53am:
A TSUNAMI WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOLOMON IS. / PAPUA NEW GUINEA
FOR ALL OTHER PACIFIC AREAS, THIS MESSAGE IS AN ADVISORY ONLY.
10 minutes later this was upgraded to include Australia:
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOLOMON IS. / PAPUA NEW GUINEA / VANUATU / NAURU / CHUUK /
NEW CALEDONIA / POHNPEI / KOSRAE / AUSTRALIA / INDONESIA /
TUVALU / KIRIBATI / MARSHALL IS.
...
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES
MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME
BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION
COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
--------------------------------
------------ ------------
SOLOMON IS.
MUNDA
8.4S 157.2E 2039Z 01 APR
FALAMAE
7.4S 155.6E 2103Z 01 APR
...
AUSTRALIA
CAIRNS
16.7S 145.8E 2349Z 01 APR
BRISBANE
27.2S 153.3E 0033Z 02 APR
SYDNEY
33.9S 151.4E 0114Z 02 APR
GLADSTONE
23.8S
151.4E 0139Z 02 APR
MACKAY
21.1S 149.3E 0144Z 02 APR
HOBART
43.3S 147.6E 0245Z 02 APR
(times are Universal/GMT so 0114Z equates to 11.14am in Sydney)
The big flaw exposed on Monday was the lack civil preparedness:
a) In Australia there are no computer models of shoaling tsunami to
predict the size of a tsunami when it reaches the coast, based on its
direction and deep water amplitude
b) There are no inundation models to predict which areas are at risk
from tsunami of various sizes and no civil disaster plans to deal with
such inundations.
c) There is no way to reliably and quickly warn the thousands of people
in these areas (Sri Lanka now has air-raid style sirens along its
coast).
d) People have not been taught what to do if they receive a tsunami
warning (Pacific Islanders have been shown videos of tsunami to help
them understand what to do. In Japan and Hawaii there are planned
evacuation routes).
In short, some people who should have moved a safety did not and many
people who were in no danger took unnecessary action and added to the
disruption.
A typical misinformed comment of a person on the beach (with a young
family!) was that they would wait until the sea receded before running
to a high place. Firstly, the trough does not always arrive before the
peak of the wave and secondly, as shown in the graphic videos from the
Indian Ocean tsunami, people have no chance of out-running a tsunami.
Tsunami move much faster than a normal ocean wave.
Although there were a few hours warning on Monday this is not always
the case. For example, there are several examples of underwater
landslide tsunami where a huge portion of the continental slope
collapsed, often triggered by a minor earthquake. The continental slope
off the coast of Sydney has not been surveyed for this risk and, in
hindsight, the Newcastle
Earthquake of 1989 should have been treated as
a potential tsunami event.
Regards
Michael Paine
- 3 Apr 07 ABC: Tsunami
forecasting needed now: Beattie [opinion:
yesterday was a "dress rehearsal" - not a "false alarm" - and
it is now evident that a great deal more effort is needed before coast
dwellers are secure. There is an urgent need for inundation mapping so
that civil authorities know which areas to evacuate - once a tsunami is
predicted]
- 2 Apr 07 Update 10.30am : The threat to the East Coast
seems to be easing. A news reports suggest very poor preparedness in
Cairns where the road up to the hills was jammed with traffic at the
same time that tourists stayed on the beachfront unaware of any threat.
- 2 Apr 07 ABC: Aust
on alert after tsunami hits Solomons - the Pacific Tsunami
Warning Center has expanded
its warning
as the quake was bigger than first thought. Approximate arrival times:
Brisbane 10am, Sydney 11am. DO NOT go to the coast to watch - it is
likely to be quite small but all warnings like this should be taken
very seriously.
- 23 Feb 07 New Scientist ($): The
wave from nowhere - Shortly
after 5 pm on 18 November 1929, an earthquake shook Canada's eastern
provinces. In Halifax, Nova Scotia, a seismometer needle jumped right
off track. Across the Gulf of St Lawrence, on Newfoundland's Burin
peninsula, the tremors sent people running into the streets. But for
them, worse was to come. Two hours later, 7-metre waves hit the shore,
their momentum carrying them as far as 27 metres above the high-tide
level...
6
Jan 06 Scientific American has a map of
potential tsunami-generating sub-duction zones - the extract at right
shows the ring around
the east coast of Australia. See the latest earthquakes here.
- 22 Oct 05 New Scientist:
Page 62 of the paper
edition has an ad for "Project Scientists - Australian Tsunami Warning
System".
- 29 Jul 05 Geology News: Tsunami
Threat by Undersea Volcanoes - Submerged volcanoes in the
South Pacific can erupt at any time, and are
apparently the source of a very dangerous tsunami hazard according to a
new
study done
by researchers at Australian National University. “Over the
last
six years, research teams from Australia, New Zealand, the USA, and
Germany have mapped a relatively narrow strip of ocean stretching about
2000 kilometres from the north of New Zealand to Tonga, and found 75
previously unknown volcanoes. Only 10 volcanoes were known in the area
prior to this research,” he said. “If any one of
these
underwater volcanoes either explosively erupts or collapses in a sudden
movement, it would have a massive impact on the ocean, triggering a
tsunami which could devastate communities across the region. There is
evidence from new high-resolution images of these volcanoes that these
events have happened many times in the past.

- Jan 05: In 1989
the Newcastle/Sydney region experienced a mild
earthquake and 15 people died when a building collapsed in Newcastle.
Following analysis of the 1998 New Guinea tsunami, it is now apparent
that "mild" earthquakes can set off undersea
landslides on nearby
continental shelves that, in turn, generate deadly localised tsunami.
Maybe once thorough seafloor surveys have been conducted and analysed
for landslide potential then some coastal areas can be declared "safe"
from such short-range tsunami. In the meantime it would be prudent for
people on coastlines
with steep continental slopes (like Sydney) to quickly move to higher
ground if they feel an earthquake, in case such a landslide tsunami is
generated. See 'The Need for Underwater Landslide
Hazards
Prediction" -
a report by Phillip Watts on a 2000 workshop in Science of Tsunami Hazards
Volume
20 No 2, page 95 (6Mb PDF).
- Jun 08: DID A
SUBMARINE SLIDE TRIGGER THE 1918 PUERTO RICO TSUNAMI?
Caption: Underwater survey
showing a landslide
on the continental slope
between Sydney and Wollongong. It is about twice the size of Botany
Bay and the depth is greater than the height of Mt
Not so rare!
Click for larger image. May be reproduced with credit to this page or
Michael Paine.
Comment on the SE Asian tsunami
disaster, 26 Dec 04.
This horrific tsunami was
caused
by an
earthquake - not an asteroid - but the consequences are
similar.
Like the
asteroid threat,
warnings from
experts about the risk and consequences of major tsunami have been
largely ignored, except in Japan and Western USA.
Japan and the USA have a very a
effective
tsunami
warning system in the Pacific Ocean. It is based, partly, on
pressure
sensors on the ocean floor. Tsunami waves are so long that
they
change
the pressure at the seafloor whereas wind waves get smoothed out.
It would be possible to set up a similar tsunami warning system in the
Indian Ocean - for a few $million (ie the cost of a few cruise
missiles)!
However some locations, such as Sumartra, were probably too close to
the source of the tsunami for a warning system to be effective and in
other areas communication limitations might hinder evacuation.
Updates related to the Indian Ocean Tsunami (latest at top)

- 3 Oct 09 New Scientist: Devastating Indonesian earthquake 'still to come'
- 13 Sep 09 Sri Lanka Sunday Observer: Tsunami warnings are only a test...be
alert to these warnings all those of you who are in any of these
districts and educate yourselves as to what you should do in the event
of a real tsunami warning. You must not panic because there is enough
time for you to get to higher land and safely before a tsunami reaches
our shores. It is good to be prepared for such a situation at all
times.
- 12 Aug 09 Malaysian Insider: Geologist narrows down location of South-east Asia’s ‘next big quake’
- 11 Aug 09 TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001, PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2005Z 10 AUG 2009 (6am 11/8 Sydney). THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL
AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. ... A REGIONAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...
...A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INDIA / MYANMAR / INDONESIA /
THAILAND / BANGLADESH .... AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE
PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 1956Z 10 AUG 2009, COORDINATES -
14.1 NORTH 93.0 EAST , LOCATION
- ANDAMAN ISLANDS INDIA REGION, MAGNITUDE - 7.7
EVALUATION - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE A
DESTRUCTIVE LOCAL TSUNAMI AND SOMETIMES A DESTRUCTIVE REGIONAL
TSUNAMI ALONG COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A THOUSAND
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER... HOWEVER - IT IS
NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS WATCH IS BASED ONLY
ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION.
- 11 Aug 09 TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001, PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2117Z 10 AUG 2009..
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 2007Z 10 AUG 2009 (11 minutes after the Andaman earthquake!)
COORDINATES - 34.8 NORTH 138.5 EAST
LOCATION - NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 6.6
EVALUATION
NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
- 16 Jul 09 ABC: Ocean tsunamis 'visible from space'
- 4 May 09 BBC: Ancient tsunami 'hit New York'
- 22 Apr 09 NewSci: Quake rumbles give quick tsunami warnings
- 22 Mar 09 Indian Tinmes: Is there a Tsunami round the corner - Major earthquake rocks Tonga?
- 20 Mar 09 New Scientist: Tsunami 'trigger' spotted on Google Earth .
- 7 Mar 09 Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol. 28, No. 1 (PDFs)
- 28 Feb 09 The News (Pakistan): Karachi not prone to major earthquakes [or tsunami], SSUET study claims.
- 15 Feb 09 SBS TV (Aust): Thalassa -
The Island-Citadel. A centre in Kobe studies the probability
of tsunamis and earthquakes and draws up evacuation plans.
- 8 Jan 09 Insurance Journal: AIR
Worldwide Analyzes Recent Earthquakes in Indonesia.
- 29 Dec 08 SMH: Sunscreen
saved couple in [2004] tsunami.
- 12 Dec 08 Nature: Earthquake
warning for Sumatra.
- 4 Dec 08 Nature: Megathrust
earthquake could hit Asia 'at any time'. (see also Dr George
P-C's article The
Earthquakes and Tsunami of September 12, 2007 in Indonesia -
Preliminary Report)
- 23 Nov 08 More
Tsunami Society 2008 papers relevant to Indian Ocean (PDFs):
- 21 Nov 08 Discovery: Did
Asteroid Cause Ancient N.Y. Tsunami? (thanks Steve Ward -
see link to his computer simulation)
- 14 Nov 08 BBC: New
tsunami system in Indonesia
- 30 Oct 08 Nature: Ancient
tsunami uncovered - Indian Ocean disaster of 2004 was biggest
in more than 600 years + BBC: Tsunami
in 2004 'not the first'.
- 27 Aug 08 SMH (2 Jan 05): 10
miracles of survival in the wake of catastrophe.
- 26 Aug 08 ABC: Tsunami
warning issued after quake off Indonesia
- note that 6.6 magnitude is not usually a threat, except if it sets
off local submarine landslides. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has
no current alerts
for the Indian Ocean.
- 19 Aug 08 Times of India: Radio
stations turn [tsunami] watch towers.
- 12 Aug 08 Independent Online: Japan
signs deal on tsunami warning data - data can be
obtained from sensors set up to montitor the Comprehensive Nuclear Test
Ban Treaty.
- 5 Aug 08 Tsunami
Society 2008 papers relevant to Indian Ocean (PDFs):
- 28 Jun 08 New Scientist: Springy
[seafloor] sediments may amplify tsunamis
- 28 Jun 08 Tsunami
Society 2008 papers relevant to Indian Ocean (PDFs):
- 28 Jun 08 ABC: No
tsunami warning issued after quake, says India. PTWC
alert.
- 24 Jun 08 ReliefWeb: Global
Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) provides support
to ASEAN.
- 18 May 08 Canadian Press: Sean
Penn uses Cannes clout to back documentary about tsunami volunteers.
- 25 Apr 08 New Scientist: Megaquake
set to strike within a decade
- sometime in the next 10 years we can expect an earthquake of a
similar magnitude to the 2004 Sumatra quake that triggered the
devastating Indian Ocean tsunami.
- 14 Mar 08 SpaceDaily: Top
Thai tsunami expert resigns over 'lack of support'.
- 11 Mar 08 NewSci: Mediterranean's
'horror' tsunami may strike again.
- 3 Feb 08 NewSci: Tsunami
threat hangs over southern Italy + Journal of Geophysical
Research ($): Earthquake-generated
tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenarios of potential threats to
Southern Italy - Our
work represents a pilot study for constructing a basin-wide tsunami
scenario database to be used for tsunami hazard assessment and early
warning. + STH: TSUNAMI RISK
SITE DETECTION IN GREECE BASED ON REMOTE SENSING AND GIS METH0DS
+
- 24 Jan 08 Universe Today: Using
GPS Could Better Tsunami Warning System
- 19 Dec 07 EPSL ($): Tsunami
threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of
Sumatra
- These results may assist in developing tsunami preparedness
strategies around the Indian Ocean and in particular along the coasts
of western Sumatra...
- 7 Dec 07 [Barbados] The Nation: [Caribbean]
Tsunami overdue
- The most recent occurred in 1946 – 61 years ago
–
when a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in the Dominican Republican triggered a
giant wave that killed 1 800 people... See also STH: VOLCANIC
TSUNAMI GENERATING SOURCE MECHANISMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION.
- 23 Nov 07 STH selected recent papers
- 23 Nov 07 USGS: Powerful
earthquake hits New Guinea coast near Lae - deep but a
potential for local tsunami. ABC: Strong
quake hits PNG. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre says there
is no
threat of a long-range tsunami but no statement is made about
local tsunami.
- 3 Nov 07 EPSL ($): 26th
December 2004 great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake: Co-seismic
and post-seismic motions in northern Sumatra - the
vertical motion of the adjacent Outer Arc and overlying water is much
larger compared to the one resulting from slip on the megathrust alone,
increasing tsunamogenic effects.
- 21 Sep 07 Science ($10!): Tsunami
Warning System Shows Agility--and Gaps in Indian Ocean Network.
- 13 Sep 07 SMH:
'Luck' stopped devastating tsunami. (4 major earthquakes in
24 hours)
- 6 Sep 07 NewSci: Tsunami
threat hangs over Bay of Bengal.
- 2 Sep 07 EPSL: Defining
the source region of the Indian Ocean Tsunami from GPS, altimeters,
tide gauges and tsunami models - the incorporation of
permanent real-time GPS stations would represent a valuable component
of future tsunami warning systems.
- 28 Aug 07 New Scientist: Tsunami
prediction for Hong Kong and Macao.
- 11 Jun 07: TSUNAMI-WARNING
is a partner of the Tsunami Institute in Germany which developed a
Tsunami Alarm System via mobile phones.
- 8 May 07 New Scientist: What
caused Britain's 1607 tsunami?
- 13 Mar 07 New Scientist 50 years ago: 10 March 1957 - Pacific
wave warnings - Because
tidal waves travel at a few hundred kilometres an hour, it is possible
from the ground waves to estimate when they will arrive at places where
damage may be caused. It is hoped that this will eventually lead to an
early warning system for vulnerable areas.
- 16 Feb 07 New Scientist ($): When
animals predict earthquakes
- Could these creatures have been sensing early warning signs of the
massive earthquake that triggered the Asian tsunami? See also the
preview for a forthcoming TV show Sentinel
Animals by Mona
Lisa Productions.
- 1 Feb 07 Whales Alive (posted in Jan 05): Dr
Arunachalam Kumar's prediction of a major earthquake, based on whale
strandings + David Moorehead: The
Earthquake & Tsunami were Predicted? & a
skeptical Disaster
warning: a whale of a tale (thanks Audrey Destandau)
- 19 Jan 07 LiveScience: Tsunamis:
The Grave, Global and Unpredictable Threat.
- 16 Jan 07 China Post: Thousands
ignored tsunami warnings after massive quake
- Thousands of Japanese ignored evacuation orders an earthquake
triggered tsunami warnings, raising concerns among officials about
future disaster management, major newspapers reported Sunday. A
magnitude 8.2 earthquake struck off northern Japan on Saturday,
prompting tsunami warnings and sending thousands fleeing to higher
ground but causing no reported injuries or damage. Thousands of others
ignored the warnings...USGS
details of earthquake.
- 29 Dec 06 IHT: Moderate
earthquake [6.0] strikes deep off Papua New Guinea coast -
"the quake was too deep to create a tsunami" - except it is now
apparent
that "mild" earthquakes can set off undersea
landslides on nearby
continental shelves that, in turn, generate deadly localised tsunami.
- 7 Dec 06 TerraDaily: Mapping
The Wake Of A Pending Quake
- within the next few decades another tsunami from another giant
earthquake is likely to flood densely populated sections of western
coastal Sumatra...
- 7 Dec 06 Science: Tracking
a Killer Tsunami - the new study strengthens the link between
volcanism and megatsunamis.
- 2 Dec 06 BBC: Tsunami
buoy laid in Indian ocean.
- 16 Nov 06 AGU 2006 Selected abstracts:
- 16 Nov 06 ABC: Small
tsunamis hit Japan.
- 28 Sep 06 BBC: Samoa
quake 'triggered tsunami' - A strong earthquake
near the South Pacific nation of Samoa has triggered a small tsunami, a
warning centre says. USGS
map.
- 3 Sep 06 Australian Journal of Emergency Management : Dealing
with the Tsunami dead: unprecedented international co-operation.
- 31 Jul 06 SMH: Bureaucracy
'slowed Java tsunami alert'.
- 23 Jul 06 ABC: Indonesia
tsunami death toll rises above 650.
- 20 Jul 06 ABC: Indonesia
says tsunami killed 528, displaced thousands + Tsunami
text warning coordinates only, officials say.
- 19 Jul 06 BBC: Indonesia
tsunami system 'not ready'
- The final part of the jigsaw is getting the warning message from
tsunami monitoring centres...to often isolated communities...Networks
of sirens are also being set up this year in the Aceh, Padang and Bali
regions to alert people who may be too poor to own TVs, radios or
mobile phones.
- 18 Jul 06 ABC: Aust
survivor tells of 5-metre tsunami - Australian survivors of
a devastating tsunami on Java's south coast say that up to six waves
struck the area yesterday.
- 18 Jul 06 The Age: Aussies
escape 2m Java tsunami wave. WP: Tsunami
hits Indonesia's Java, death toll nears 40.
- 10 Jul 06 NewSci: Tsunami
warning system not enough - is
essential to ensure the "downstream flow" of information from the
warning centres to populations and communities at risk...Will there be
the means to relay information to those who live on and near the
beaches?
- 1 Jul 06 NASA: NASA
Satellite Positioning Software May Aid in Tsunami Warnings.
- 29 Jun 06 BBC: Asia
tsunami warning system ready - even a 100% successful warning
system would be ineffective "if people do not know how to respond to
the emergency".
- 2 Jun 06 Steve Ward: Simulation of
Boxing Day tsunami (mov)
- 13 May 06 Selection of recent papers from Science of Tsunami
Hazards (PDFs):
- 12 May 06 NewSci: Tsunami
still pollutes Sri Lankan wells.
- 5 May 06 IHT: Tsunami
warning systems prove they're not up to job.
- 4 May 06 SMH: Major
quake rocks South Pacific (6:15am)
Islands are being checked after a massive earthquake near Tonga sparks
a tsunami alert and evacuations. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre
issued a tsunami alert for Fiji and New Zealand after tide gauges in
Pago Pago, Samoa and Niue showed a small rise in sea levels, but this
was subsequently withdrawn.
- 7 Apr 06 ABC: Ministers
to develop national disaster plan
- "Rather than just looking at things like bushfires and floods and
storms, which occur regularly in Australia, the focus of our
discussions will be on preparing Australia to be able to respond to
things like a tsunami, or a pandemic, or even a major terrorist attack
somewhere on our shores..."
- 26 Mar 06 ABC: [Australian] Govt
to oversee tsunami warning system extension - The
Federal Government will oversee the installation of new tsunami warning
buoys in the Indian Ocean as part of a new scientific deal with the
United States [still no sign of a civil response program for Australian
coastal towns].
- 2 Feb 06 BBC:
'Scant help' for tsunami victims
- 28 Jan 06 BBC:
Huge quake
off Indonesian coast
- 6 Jan 06 Scientific American: Tsunami:
Wave of Change
- 26 Dec 05 BBC:
Local action 'key in tsunami aid' + Tsunami trees - How mangrove
forests helped save lives in the tsunami disaster (see 30 Oct)
- 22 Dec 05 Nature (subs!): India
makes waves over tsunami warning system Will data to be shared be
sufficient?
- 13 Dec 05 Livescience: Report:
California Tsunami Could Kill 1 Million. + The
Megatsunami: Possible Modern Threat posted: 14 December 2004. (prior to the
Indian Ocean
tsunami).
- 9 Dec 05 BBC:
Scientists
voice [Sumatra] tsunami concern
- 8 Dec 05 ABC Science Show: [Australian] Tsunami
threat from submerged volcanoes
- 2 Dec o5 BBC:
Tsunami probe
scolds Swedish PM
- 1 Dec 05 Livescience: Insurance
Company Funds Study of East Coast Tsunami Risk (thanks Steve
Ward)
- 30 Oct 05 UPI:
Study: Mangroves protect against tsunami.
- 27 Sep 05 NZ Herald: Tsunami could catch Auckland off its guard
- Auckland could be hit with little or
no warning by a
southbound tsunami from the Pacific Ocean
- 8 Sep 05 ANU: Submerged
volcanoes pose tsunami threat - One of the world’s
most active
volcanic areas is a relatively unknown part of the seabed between New
Zealand and Tonga, and could trigger a devastating tsunami at any
moment...[dont lose any sleep over this but it is certainly
worth
investigating further as it could be the source of some of the
mega-tsunami along the eastern seaboard of Australia]
- 2 Sep 05 NewSci (subs): Tsunami waves 'shot along' mid-ocean ridges
- 28 Aug 05 NewSci: Indian
Ocean tsunami's puzzling waves explained
- 12 Aug 05 Science (subs): Dealing
with
disasters.
- 10 Aug 05 BBC:
Green light for tsunami sensors - in Indian Ocean
- 9 Aug 05 Yahoo: Hawaii
Study: Trees Buffer Tsunami Impact
- 3 Jul 05 New Scientist (pay to view!): Worries
over US response to tsunami scare - A confused media and an
unaware
public raise doubts over whether some US coastal areas could cope with
the real thing. On 14 June, at 7.50 pm local time, an
undersea
quake rocked the coast of northern California, and the entire west
coast of the US and Canada was instantly put on a tsunami alert. The
alert turned out to be a false alarm, but the patchy response to the
scare is raising questions about whether the vulnerable coast will be
ready if a big tsunami really does strike. And evidence of past
tsunamis is showing that big ones do happen, and with ominous frequency
[~400 years]...
- 1 Jul 05 The Age: UNESCO
launches tsunami warning system.
- 26 Jun 05 BBC: Tsunami
alert system takes shape - Six months on from the 26 December
tsunami, a comprehensive early warning system is coming together.
- 24 Jun 05 Science: Forecasting a Tsunami Years
Before it
Hits
- 15 Jun 05 ABC: Australian
witnesses tsunami panic in Chile - comment: although there
was no
danger of a tsunami the experience does suggest that coastal Chile is
not well prepared, even though it has experienced some of the worst
tsunami over the centuries.
- 11 Jun 05 LiveScience: Tornado
Deaths on Decline - The number of tornado deaths has
decreased by
nearly half since a network of Doppler weather radars were installed
nationwide a decade ago, according to a new study. Successful warning
system.
- 10 Jun 05 IGNSL (Feb05):
ASIAN
TSUNAMI DAMAGE PROMPTS RETHINK IN NZ
- 10 Jun 05 BBC: UK
backs hazard warning system
- 9 Jun 05 SMH: Quake
may be 'imminent' warns tsunami expert.
- 24 May 05 RealSurf: Is
Sydney
at risk from a tsunami?
- 24 May 05 Amateur
Tsunami Video Footage.
- 20 May 05 US Congress: BOEHLERT
INTRODUCES TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS BILL
- 5 May 05 ABC: WHO
deconstructs tsunami response -
The World Health Organisation (WHO) is
hosting a three-day meeting in the Thai resort town of Phuket to
consider the lessons of the Indian Ocean tsunami.
- 28 Apr 05 NG: Tsunami
Proofing: Where to Put Walls, Trees + Saved
by Knowledge of the Sea.
- 25 Apr 05 Engineers
Australia April 2005: Tsunami risk may be
higher on our east coast (not online - unedited
preprint)
- 8 Apr 05 ABC: Indonesia
reduces possible tsunami death toll
- 7 Apr 05 AustGeo Mar 05: The
Boxing Day Tsunami – and the need for a warning system in the
Indian
Ocean (PDF)
- 6 Apr 05 Scientific American: Reanalysis
Reveals Tsunami-Spawning Quake to Be Second Largest
Known.
- 3 Apr 05 ABC: CSIRO
moorings may help warn of tsunamis - New research involving
Tasmanian scientists aims to produce more effective tsunami warnings in
the Indian Ocean.
- 31 Mar 05 Nature: Indonesia
still in jeopardy (further earthquakes) + articles about the
December event.
- 30 Mar 05 BBC: New
quake makes only small wave + Asian
nerves frayed by earthquake.
- 26 Mar 05 BBC:
Tsunami alert
system's limitations
- 17 Mar 05 BBC: Warning
on new Asian quake threat.
- 14 Mar 05 Yahoo: Pacific Center Sued Over Tsunami Warning
!
- 9 Mar 05 ABC: Thai
tsunami study not for public release - The official appointed
to
investigate the
failure of Thailand's weather bureau to issue a tsunami warning on
December 26 says his findings will never be revealed.
- 8 Mar 05 ABC: Australian
tsunami toll raised to 21
- 3 Mar 05 SMH: Darwin
rocked by earthquake - measuring
7.1 on the Richter scale. Its epicentre was in the Banda Sea
near
Indonesia. Although it was the biggest in several years in the Banda
Sea, the quake was unlikely to have done any significant damage and
"very unlikely to cause a tsunami". Opinion: That is OK to
say
in hindsight BUT
- Should there have been an immediate tsunami
alert?
(geoscientists report that the earthquake was too deep below the
seafloor to cause a significant tsunami)
- IF there was a threat, how would an alarm be raised?
- Would residents of low-lying parts of Darwin know
what to
do?
A balance needs to be
struck between
unreasonable false alarms and preparedness. Ignoring the potential
threat is not an ethical option.
- 25 Feb 05 Gondwana Research: Destructive
Earthquake and Disastrous Tsunami in the Indian Ocean, What
Next?
( 1Mb PDF) - excellent review of the cause of the tsunami and the
on-going risk to coastlines around the world.
- 23 Feb 05 ABC: Tsunami-hit
nations must utilise environment: UN
- 17 Feb 05 Tsunami
modeller Steve Ward has articles dealing with this event.
- 14 Feb 05: South
Asia
Disaster Response Imagery Analysis
- 12 Feb 05 Tsunami
Warning Services in the Australian Region - a 1998 Australian
press
release - "There
are currently
no international arrangements in place for tsunami warnings in the
Indian Ocean...Subject to funding arrangements and organisational
approvals, it is anticipated that the [Pacific] ATWS will be
operational before the middle of 1999." [?]
- 11 Feb 05 New Scientist: Power
of
tsunami earthquake heavily underestimated - The quake that
created
the devastating Asian tsunami released three times more energy than
initially thought, a new analysis reveals
- 11 Feb 05 SMH: Rumpled
carpet that caused a catastrophe - The devastation wrought on
the
ocean floor by the earthquake that caused December's tsunami
has
been revealed for the first time.
- 8 Feb 05 News.com.au: Australians
'sitting duck' if tsunami struck. Sydney Science
Forum 2005: "The
Aceh Tsunami" - 6pm Wed 9 Feb at Sydney University.
- 8 Feb 05 Scientific American: What conditions are necessary for an underwater
earthquake or volcanic eruption to cause a tsunami?
- 4 Feb 05 ABC Lab: Old
records show tsunamis were common - A study of
colonial
records held in the UK suggests that many more tsunamis have occurred
in the Indian Ocean than once thought.
- 4 Feb 05 Nature: Need
for a risk-informed tsunami alert system.
- 1 Feb 05 BBC: Animation
of
the disaster - explains how tsunami form and inundate.
- 30 Jan 05 ABC Aust: UN
to
coordinate Asia's tsunami warning centres -
The United Nations emerged on Saturday as a
coordinator for a regional tsunami warning centre after officials from
43 nations including India, Indonesia and Thailand failed to agree who
should run it.
- 29 Jan 05 ABC Aust: Australians
join tsunami alert talks + Tsunami-devastated
nations divided on tsunami warning system
- 29 Jan 05 Science: Nuke
Policy Leads India to Build Own [tsunami warning] Network.
- 27 Jan 05: Dr Pararas-Carayannis's comprehensive
coverage of the tsunami is now easier to access.
- 26 Jan 05 Scandasia: Tsunami
alert
via mobile phones investigated (CC)
- 26 Jan 05 ABC: Missing
expected to take tsunami toll past 280,000
- The death toll from the December 26 Indian
Ocean tsunami has continued its sickening rise with more than 280,000
people now presumed dead as bodies continue to be recovered. See the
original report on 26 Dec 04
- "...killing some
300 in Sri Lanka and almost 100 in Indonesia..."
- 22 Jan 05 ABC: Politics
impedes tsunami warning system planning
- 20 Jan 05 Nature: Tsunami
towns urged to plan reconstruction + Asian
tsunami
- 19 Jan 05 SpaceDaily: Scientists
Get To Work On Early Warning System After Tsunami Disaster
- 17 Jan 05 Zaman: US to Develop Tsunami Prevention
[warning?] System
- 15 Jan 05 New Scientist: Special
report: Asian tsunami disaster - will we be ready for the
next one?
- 15 Jan 05 LiveScience: Satellites
Recorded the Swell before the Tsunami.
- 15 Jan 05 BBC:
Tsunami early warning 'next year'
- 15 Jan 05 Science: U.S.
Clamor Grows for Global Network of Ocean Sensors.
- 9 Jan 05 Scientific American (free items): Tsunami!
+ Killer
Waves on the East Coast? + Scientists
Predict a MegaTsunami May Devastate Eastern U.S. Coastline
(but see MEGA
TSUNAMI
HAZARDS)
- 9 Jan 05 Nature: Inadequate
warning system left Asia at the mercy of tsunami + Tsunamis:
a long-term threat + India
pledges to fund alert system in wake of disaster - "Data
were
pouring into our lab but
we cannot issue alerts even if we can analyse the data for tsunami
potential," says one researcher at the National Geophysical Research
Institute in Hyderabad (India).
- 9 Jan 05 Benfield
Hazard
Research Centre: The Tsunami
Risks
Project.
- 9 Jan 05 Zaman Newspaper (Turkey): 'Tsunami Conspiracies Disrespect against
Disaster
Victims' (my actual words were "utter
nonsense") + The Tsunami Cost India $2 Billion
+ Death Toll Surpasses 104,000 in Indonesia + Death Toll in South Asia Reaches 160,000
+ Future of Aceh and its People Uncertain
- The following is the
death toll as of
today:
- Indonesia: 107,039
dead, 15,420
missing
- Sri Lanka: There
are 30,680
dead and 4,883 missing. Officials worry that the number will surpass
42,000. Moreover, there are 16,236 wounded and 578,224 homeless.
- India: 10,001
dead, 5,689
missing. There is little hope for the missing. 382,586 people remained
homeless.
- Thailand: 5,305
dead, half of
who are foreigners, and 3,498 are missing. The death toll might be
between 7,000 and 8,000
- Myanmar: 59 dead,
32 homeless
- Maldives: 82 dead,
26 missing;
13,000 homeless
- Malaysia: 68 dead
- Bangladesh: 2 dead
- A
total of 309 people in
Somalia, Tanzania and Kenya in the African continent have died.
- 8 Jan 05 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration: Online
copy of Tsunami! from Scientific American, May 1999. Its awesome fury cannot be
diminished,
but lessons learned from a rash of disasters this decade—and
a new way
to track these killer waves—will help save lives. + PMEL Tsunami FAQ.
Real
time tsunameter data
- locations on the West Coast of the USA.
- 8 Jan 05 UCSC: UCSC
geophysicist creates computer simulation of Indian Ocean tsunami
- 9Mb
Quicktime movie.
- 8 Jan 05 Universe Today: Topography
Mission Wraps Up With Australia
- 7 Jan 05 Science: In
Wake of Disaster, Scientists Seek Out Clues to Prevention.
- 7 Jan 05 SpaceDaily: Tsunami-Hit
Nations To Get Warning System
- 7 Jan 05 New Scientist: Tsunami
warning system is not simply sensors.
- 6 Jan 05 Diagrams "Major
tsunami in the 1990s" and "Killer
tsunami in historical times" (may be reproduced with credit
to this
page). Update 8 Jan: 1976 Guatemala event removed from map, based on NOAA
database.
- 6 Jan 05 SpaceDaily: Reducing
The
Death Toll From Tsunami (by Michael Paine)

- 6 Jan 05 AusGeo News 75 - September
2004 (before the Dec 2004 tsunami): Small
threat, but warning sounded for tsunami research (PDF) ... the magnitude of the 1833
[Sumatra]
earthquake may have been as high as 9.2 based on a recent study that
used the growth ring record of coral micro-atolls to estimate the
uplift. This massive earthquake would probably have affected the entire
Indian Ocean basin, and the whole Western
Australian coastline... (thanks Duncan Steel)
- 6 Jan 05 TodayOnline (Singapore): Scientist
warned
of tsunami danger 15
years ago... in a radio interview, Dr
Pararas-Carayannis said he submitted a report to the United
Nations in the late 1980s highlighting the possibility of
tsunamis happening in South East Asia. In the report
he
pointed out the possibility of a very large earthquake in the sea off
Sumatra. "There was no doubt in my mind that it
would
happen. The question is when it would happen,"
- 2 Jan 05 Liberation:
Nobody
should have been
surprised (English translation) - People
seem to have a very short
memory of
disasters... They
always wait until after a catastrophe - like the one that
occurred on Sunday - to take a some plan of action...
- 2 Jan 05 Athens Post: Mediterranean
also at risk of tsunamis, experts warn
- 1 Jan 05 World News: Tsunami
predicted, not heeded + SMH: Anger
rises in India over lack of warning
- 29 Dec 04 Space.com: Arthur
C.
Clarke, in Sri Lanka, Calls Tsunami 'Disaster of Unprecedented
Magnitude' In 1973 Sir Arthur wrote these words in Rendezvous
with Rama: "After
the initial
shock, mankind reacted with a deterimination and unity that no earlier
age could have shown. Such a disater, it was relaised, might not occur
again for a thousand years - but it might occur tomorrow. And the next
time to consequences could be even worse. VERY WELL; THERE WOULD BE NO
NEXT TIME". (He was describing a fictional asteroid impact).
- 29 Dec 04 Copy of "The
Great
Earthquake and Tsunami of 26 December 2004 in Southeast Asia"
by
Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis temporarily added due to his
website
being overloaded.
- 23 Aug 03
Economist: The
next big wave - tsunami detection
- 2001 - "Tsunami
- the under-rated
hazard"
- book by A/Prof
Ted Bryant. "In the past decade over ten
major tsunami events have
impacted on the world's coastlines, causing devastation and loss of
life. Evidence for past great tsunami, or 'mega-tsunami', has also
recently been discovered along apparently aseismic and protected
coastlines. With a large proportion of the world's population living on
the coastline, the threat from tsunami cannot be ignored..."
- Dec 1999: CONTEMPORARY
ASSESSMENT OF TSUNAMI RISK AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EARLY WARNINGS FOR
AUSTRALIA
AND ITS ISLAND TERRITORIES by Rynn and Davidson + Review of the risk in Australia.
- See USGS for more information about tsunami
warning systems and details
of the 26 Dec event.
- UNESCO
International
Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific
- "The real tragedy of
all this is that the
system is there, the
technology is there, the capability is there, it just wasn't in place
in the Indian Ocean when the thing hit." Booklet: Tsunami
The Great Waves (9Mb PDF)
- First
reports posted here (below)
- More links under News
and Tsunami Links
Michael
is a consulting mechanical engineer who lives in the Northern Beaches
of Sydney. He has been researching tsunami since 1998 and
has had two papers
published in the international journal
Science
of Tsunami Hazards: